Happy Valley · 2024-01-31 · 00:49
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-31 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HERCULES, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C H Yip, won by SH, with HARMONY N HOME second and DOUBLE SHOW third. The 2.7 favourite COLONEL finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | HERCULES B/TT 1.10.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C H Yip | H Bowman | C H Yip | 12 | 17.0 | SH |
| 2 | 1 | HARMONY N HOME Y L Chung · C S Shum | Y L Chung | C S Shum | 11 | 35.0 | SH |
| 3 | 11 | DOUBLE SHOW B/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 1 | 6.4 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | NOIR RIDER XB/B2 M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 6 | 29.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | H Z TOURBILLON TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 4 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | COLONEL V Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 10 | 2.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | WIND SPEEDER B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 3 | 7.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | GET THE MONIES B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 2 | 14.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | TIMESTORM B E C W Wong · D J Hall | E C W Wong | D J Hall | 8 | 25.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 6 | BAYVIEW STAR B-/TT1 K De Melo · W K Mo | K De Melo | W K Mo | 7 | 97.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | ISLAND SURPRISE V/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 9 | 20.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | MODEST GENTLEMAN B/TT A Atzeni · K W Lui | A Atzeni | K W Lui | 5 | 5.8 | 15-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | DOUBLE SHOW | 16.2% | 6.19 | 3 |
| 2 | 7 | MODEST GENTLEMAN | 13.5% | 7.43 | 12 |
| 3 | 3 | COLONEL | 13.4% | 7.47 | 6 |
| 4 | 8 | H Z TOURBILLON | 13.1% | 7.63 | 5 |
| 5 | 5 | WIND SPEEDER | 8.7% | 11.43 | 7 |
| 6 | 9 | GET THE MONIES | 8.4% | 11.88 | 8 |
| 7 | 2 | HERCULES | 7.8% | 12.88 | 1 |
| 8 | 4 | TIMESTORM | 6.9% | 14.60 | 9 |
| 9 | 10 | ISLAND SURPRISE | 5.0% | 19.95 | 11 |
| 10 | 1 | HARMONY N HOME | 4.3% | 23.19 | 2 |
| 11 | 12 | NOIR RIDER | 1.7% | 57.57 | 4 |
| 12 | 6 | BAYVIEW STAR | 1.0% | 95.76 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 172
PLACE
1 85
2 44.5
11 23
QUINELLA
1,2 1,398.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 359
1,11 271.5
2,11 182
FORECAST
2,1 2,624
TIERCE
2,1,11 23,209
TRIO
1,2,11 4,366
FIRST 4
1,2,11,12 11,036
QUARTET
2,1,11,12 284,207
All pools (1 more)
1ST DOUBLE
12/1 392
12/2 953.5