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Happy Valley · 2024-01-31 · 00:49

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 11 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-31 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY GOLF, ridden by H Bowman and trained by F C Lor, won by NOSE, with ALLOY KING second and COUNTRY DANCER third. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.11.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 HAPPY GOLF 1.11.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · F C Lor 2 3.6 NOSE
2 12 ALLOY KING V M L Yeung · K H Ting 9 36.0 NOSE
3 10 COUNTRY DANCER P A Hamelin · J Size 4 8.7 SH
4 5 KING ECCELLENTE SR/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 10 5.1 3/4
5 1 JUMBO LEGEND H/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 11 11.0 1-1/2
6 9 TALENTS SUPREMO TT B Avdulla · W K Mo 3 4.7 1-3/4
7 11 ISLAND BRIGHT SR M F Poon · P F Yiu 5 64.0 2
8 4 HIGH RISE SOLDIER B M Chadwick · K W Lui 8 17.0 2-3/4
9 6 GREAT ACHIEVER C L Chau · T P Yung 7 15.0 4
10 7 BRAVO WARRIOR TT1 K De Melo · W Y So 1 36.0 4
11 8 LUCKY SYMPHONY TT Z Purton · J Richards 6 9.6 9-3/4
2 E UNIVERSE TT Y L Chung · K L Man 12 27.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAPPY GOLF2. ALLOY KING+0.05L3. COUNTRY DANCER+0.1L4. KING ECCELLENTE+0.75L5. JUMBO LEGEND+1.5L6. TALENTS SUPREMO+1.75L7. ISLAND BRIGHT+2L8. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+2.75L9. GREAT ACHIEVER+4L10. BRAVO WARRIOR+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick TALENTS SUPREMO (18.4%) finished 6th — the winner HAPPY GOLF was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 TALENTS SUPREMO 18.4% 5.43 6
2 3 HAPPY GOLF 18.3% 5.46 1
3 5 KING ECCELLENTE 10.9% 9.22 4
4 4 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 10.8% 9.25 8
5 1 JUMBO LEGEND 9.5% 10.55 5
6 6 GREAT ACHIEVER 8.9% 11.23 9
7 8 LUCKY SYMPHONY 8.0% 12.45 11
8 11 ISLAND BRIGHT 5.2% 19.15 7
9 7 BRAVO WARRIOR 4.3% 23.43 10
10 10 COUNTRY DANCER 3.2% 31.44 3
11 12 ALLOY KING 2.6% 39.20 2
TALENTS SUPREMOHAPPY GOLF — wonKING ECCELLENTEHIGH RISE SOLDIERJUMBO LEGENDGREAT ACHIEVERLUCKY SYMPHONYISLAND BRIGHTBRAVO WARRIORCOUNTRY DANCERALLOY KING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 36.5

PLACE

3 17.5

10 33

12 94.5

QUINELLA

3,12 1,022

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 73

3,12 319.5

10,12 823

FORECAST

3,12 1,581

TIERCE

3,12,10 13,803

TRIO

3,10,12 2,660

FIRST 4

3,5,10,12 3,841

QUARTET

3,12,10,5 99,061

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

2/3 305

2/12 388.5