Happy Valley · 2024-01-31 · 00:49
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-31 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. CIRCUIT SEVEN, ridden by M F Poon and trained by W K Mo, won by HD, with HARMONY FIRE second and OVERSUBSCRIBED third. The 2.5 favourite SUPER FAST DRAGON finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | CIRCUIT SEVEN B/H/TT 0.57.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · W K Mo | M F Poon | W K Mo | 3 | 17.0 | HD |
| 2 | 2 | HARMONY FIRE SR/TT H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 9 | 11.0 | HD |
| 3 | 8 | OVERSUBSCRIBED XB A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 2 | 7.8 | HD |
| 4 | 3 | SERGEANT PEPPER E C W Wong · Y S Tsui | E C W Wong | Y S Tsui | 1 | 9.3 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | LEAN MASTER B/TT H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 10 | 27.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | G ONE EXCELLENT B-/TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 11 | 77.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | SAVVY DELIGHT P/TT A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 7 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | GALLANT GOODY B- M L Yeung · P F Yiu | M L Yeung | P F Yiu | 4 | 81.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 9 | SUPER FAST DRAGON B/XB/TT L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 12 | 2.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | BEAUTY DESTINY CP/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 6 | 6.4 | 4 |
| 11 | 4 | LIFE IS GOOD H/P/XB/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng | Y L Chung | P C Ng | 5 | 10.0 | 5 |
| 12 | 1 | SCOTCH TYCOON B B Avdulla · M Newnham | B Avdulla | M Newnham | 8 | 46.0 | 9 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 16.5% | 6.06 | 3 |
| 2 | 5 | SAVVY DELIGHT | 11.1% | 9.02 | 7 |
| 3 | 7 | BEAUTY DESTINY | 11.1% | 9.02 | 10 |
| 4 | 3 | SERGEANT PEPPER | 11.0% | 9.09 | 4 |
| 5 | 4 | LIFE IS GOOD | 10.4% | 9.61 | 11 |
| 6 | 2 | HARMONY FIRE | 10.1% | 9.90 | 2 |
| 7 | 9 | SUPER FAST DRAGON | 9.9% | 10.13 | 9 |
| 8 | 12 | LEAN MASTER | 6.4% | 15.67 | 5 |
| 9 | 10 | CIRCUIT SEVEN | 5.9% | 16.90 | 1 |
| 10 | 1 | SCOTCH TYCOON | 5.1% | 19.70 | 12 |
| 11 | 6 | G ONE EXCELLENT | 2.0% | 50.80 | 6 |
| 12 | 11 | GALLANT GOODY | 0.6% | 169.23 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 177
PLACE
2 37
8 22.5
10 39
QUINELLA
2,10 803.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,8 98.5
2,10 241
8,10 135.5
FORECAST
10,2 1,616
TIERCE
10,2,8 7,882
TRIO
2,8,10 1,643
FIRST 4
2,3,8,10 1,928
QUARTET
10,2,8,3 49,741
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
8/2 189.5
8/10 1,343