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Happy Valley · 2024-01-31 · 00:49

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-01-31 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. NICCONI COUNTY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C Fownes, won by SH, with HARMONY N BLESSED second and JUMBO FORTUNE third. The 3.5 favourite CELESTIAL COLOURS finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.10.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 NICCONI COUNTY XB/TT 1.10.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C Fownes 7 10.0 SH
2 2 HARMONY N BLESSED B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 2 22.0 SH
3 11 JUMBO FORTUNE PC/XB A Hamelin · P C Ng 6 31.0 3/4
4 9 ACT OF FAITH B A Atzeni · J Size 5 11.0 2-1/4
5 8 EXCELLENT PEERS H/XB M Chadwick · F C Lor 8 20.0 2-1/4
6 3 GRATEFUL HEART B/TT H Bentley · W Y So 4 16.0 3-3/4
7 7 NEVER TOO SOON K De Melo · D J Hall 3 7.7 3-3/4
8 4 LIGHTNING BOLT TT A Badel · C S Shum 11 32.0 4-1/2
9 6 O'LINER P/TT H Bowman · T P Yung 9 9.8 8-1/4
10 12 ONE FOR ALL B/TT L Hewitson · M Newnham 1 5.9 8-1/4
11 5 CELESTIAL COLOURS B/TT Z Purton · J Richards 10 3.5 9-1/2
12 1 SUPERB CAPITALIST H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 7.9 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NICCONI COUNTY2. HARMONY N BLESSED+0.1L3. JUMBO FORTUNE+0.75L4. ACT OF FAITH+2.25L5. EXCELLENT PEERS+2.25L6. GRATEFUL HEART+3.75L7. NEVER TOO SOON+3.75L8. LIGHTNING BOLT+4.5L9. O'LINER+8.25L10. ONE FOR ALL+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CELESTIAL COLOURS (19.3%) finished 11th — the winner NICCONI COUNTY was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 CELESTIAL COLOURS 19.3% 5.17 11
2 6 O'LINER 14.3% 6.98 9
3 12 ONE FOR ALL 10.8% 9.25 10
4 9 ACT OF FAITH 9.3% 10.72 4
5 1 SUPERB CAPITALIST 9.1% 10.95 12
6 7 NEVER TOO SOON 7.6% 13.09 7
7 10 NICCONI COUNTY 6.8% 14.81 1
8 4 LIGHTNING BOLT 5.5% 18.12 8
9 2 HARMONY N BLESSED 4.8% 20.78 2
10 11 JUMBO FORTUNE 4.5% 22.19 3
11 8 EXCELLENT PEERS 4.1% 24.35 5
12 3 GRATEFUL HEART 3.7% 26.91 6
CELESTIAL COLOURSO'LINERONE FOR ALLACT OF FAITHSUPERB CAPITALISTNEVER TOO SOONNICCONI COUNTY — wonLIGHTNING BOLTHARMONY N BLESSEDJUMBO FORTUNEEXCELLENT PEERSGRATEFUL HEART

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 109

PLACE

2 61

10 30

11 73

QUINELLA

2,10 1,357

QUINELLA PLACE

2,10 401.5

2,11 694

10,11 358

FORECAST

10,2 2,515

TIERCE

10,2,11 23,152

TRIO

2,10,11 7,437

FIRST 4

2,9,10,11 21,973

QUARTET

10,2,11,9 547,207

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,10,12/2,10,11 5,153,938

6TH DOUBLE

3/2 177.5

3/10 455.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,7,10/3,10,12/Any Combination 127,358