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Happy Valley · 2024-02-07 · 10:41

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-07 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. UNITED ENDEAVORS, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by W Y So, won by 1-3/4, with BRILLIANT PIONEER second and BIG TWO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite REGENCY HAPPY STAR finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.40.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 UNITED ENDEAVORS Closed strongly H/TT 1.40.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · W Y So 2 6.2 1-3/4
2 9 BRILLIANT PIONEER Closed strongly PC-/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 5 7.6 1-3/4
3 4 BIG TWO Closed strongly SR/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 7 11.0 2
4 1 STORMTROUPER Closed strongly E/XB L Hewitson · C H Yip 1 7.2 2
5 8 CHARMING STEED E/V/XB/TT A Badel · C Fownes 12 11.0 2-1/2
6 11 VIVA A LA Led early B/H/TT M F Poon · K L Man 10 8.4 2-3/4
7 3 YOUNG HORIZON H- K C Leung · D A Hayes 11 21.0 4-1/4
8 2 NICE BIRDIE Closed strongly TT C L Chau · C S Shum 9 10.0 5
9 12 SUPER HORNET B/XB/TT Y L Chung · J Richards 8 24.0 5-1/4
10 6 REGENCY HAPPY STAR CP/H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 3 3.7 5-1/2
11 5 CIRCUIT ELITE B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 4 40.0 14
12 10 DASHING GLORY H-/TT K De Melo · Y S Tsui 6 64.0 38-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. UNITED ENDEAVORS2. BRILLIANT PIONEER+1.75L3. BIG TWO+2L4. STORMTROUPER+2L5. CHARMING STEED+2.5L6. VIVA A LA+2.75L7. YOUNG HORIZON+4.25L8. NICE BIRDIE+5L9. SUPER HORNET+5.25L10. REGENCY HAPPY STAR+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick REGENCY HAPPY STAR (20.8%) finished 10th — the winner UNITED ENDEAVORS was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 REGENCY HAPPY STAR 20.8% 4.80 10
2 2 NICE BIRDIE 16.4% 6.11 8
3 9 BRILLIANT PIONEER 11.8% 8.47 2
4 7 UNITED ENDEAVORS 11.0% 9.07 1
5 8 CHARMING STEED 7.5% 13.33 5
6 1 STORMTROUPER 6.9% 14.51 4
7 3 YOUNG HORIZON 5.7% 17.64 7
8 4 BIG TWO 5.4% 18.56 3
9 11 VIVA A LA 4.9% 20.55 6
10 10 DASHING GLORY 4.0% 24.71 12
11 12 SUPER HORNET 3.2% 31.54 9
12 5 CIRCUIT ELITE 2.5% 40.80 11
REGENCY HAPPY STARNICE BIRDIEBRILLIANT PIONEERUNITED ENDEAVORS — wonCHARMING STEEDSTORMTROUPERYOUNG HORIZONBIG TWOVIVA A LADASHING GLORYSUPER HORNETCIRCUIT ELITE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 62.5

PLACE

4 27.5

7 19.5

9 29.5

QUINELLA

7,9 222.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 80.5

4,9 129.5

7,9 80

FORECAST

7,9 435

TIERCE

7,9,4 3,411

TRIO

4,7,9 655

FIRST 4

1,4,7,9 948

QUARTET

7,9,4,1 21,677