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Happy Valley · 2024-02-07 · 18:40

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 UNITED ENDEAVORS Closed strongly H/TT 1.40.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · W Y So 2 6.2 1-3/4
2 0 BRILLIANT PIONEER Closed strongly PC-/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 5 7.6 1-3/4
3 0 BIG TWO Closed strongly SR/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 7 11.0 2
4 0 STORMTROUPER Closed strongly E/XB L Hewitson · C H Yip 1 7.2 2
5 0 CHARMING STEED E/V/XB/TT A Badel · C Fownes 12 11.0 2-1/2
6 0 VIVA A LA Led early B/H/TT M F Poon · K L Man 10 8.4 2-3/4
7 0 YOUNG HORIZON H- K C Leung · D A Hayes 11 21.0 4-1/4
8 0 NICE BIRDIE Closed strongly TT C L Chau · C S Shum 9 10.0 5
9 0 SUPER HORNET B/XB/TT Y L Chung · J Richards 8 24.0 5-1/4
10 0 REGENCY HAPPY STAR CP/H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 3 3.7 5-1/2
11 0 CIRCUIT ELITE B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 4 40.0 14
12 0 DASHING GLORY H-/TT K De Melo · Y S Tsui 6 64.0 38-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-07 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. UNITED ENDEAVORS, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by W Y So, won by 1-3/4, with BRILLIANT PIONEER second and BIG TWO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite REGENCY HAPPY STAR finished 10th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. UNITED ENDEAVORS—2. BRILLIANT PIONEER+1.75L3. BIG TWO+2L4. STORMTROUPER+2L5. CHARMING STEED+2.5L6. VIVA A LA+2.75L7. YOUNG HORIZON+4.25L8. NICE BIRDIE+5L9. SUPER HORNET+5.25L10. REGENCY HAPPY STAR+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick REGENCY HAPPY STAR (20.8%) finished 10th — the winner UNITED ENDEAVORS was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 REGENCY HAPPY STAR 20.8% 4.80 10
2 0 NICE BIRDIE 16.4% 6.11 8
3 0 BRILLIANT PIONEER 11.8% 8.47 2
4 0 UNITED ENDEAVORS 11.0% 9.07 1
5 0 CHARMING STEED 7.5% 13.33 5
6 0 STORMTROUPER 6.9% 14.51 4
7 0 YOUNG HORIZON 5.7% 17.64 7
8 0 BIG TWO 5.4% 18.56 3
9 0 VIVA A LA 4.9% 20.55 6
10 0 DASHING GLORY 4.0% 24.71 12
11 0 SUPER HORNET 3.2% 31.54 9
12 0 CIRCUIT ELITE 2.5% 40.80 11
REGENCY HAPPY STARNICE BIRDIEBRILLIANT PIONEERUNITED ENDEAVORS — wonCHARMING STEEDSTORMTROUPERYOUNG HORIZONBIG TWOVIVA A LADASHING GLORYSUPER HORNETCIRCUIT ELITE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 62.5

PLACE

4 27.5

7 19.5

9 29.5

QUINELLA

7,9 222.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 80.5

4,9 129.5

7,9 80

FORECAST

7,9 435

TIERCE

7,9,4 3,411

TRIO

4,7,9 655

FIRST 4

1,4,7,9 948

QUARTET

7,9,4,1 21,677