Happy Valley · 2024-02-07 · 12:43
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-07 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. LOVERO, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with STURDY RUBY second and WIN WIN FIGHTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.2 favourite STURDY RUBY finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LOVERO Closed strongly TT 1.41.38 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 7 | 7.1 | N |
| 2 | 10 | STURDY RUBY Closed strongly TT Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 9 | 4.2 | N |
| 3 | 4 | WIN WIN FIGHTER Closed strongly B L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 1 | 6.5 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 2 | DRAGON STAR V/XB K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 8 | 5.5 | 1 |
| 5 | 6 | GALVANIC TT B Avdulla · C Fownes | B Avdulla | C Fownes | 4 | 8.2 | 1 |
| 6 | 7 | KASA PAPA Closed strongly TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 2 | 5.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | GALLANT CROWN Led early B K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 11 | 24.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 11 | MERCHANT PRINCE V/TT M L Yeung · J Richards | M L Yeung | J Richards | 5 | 88.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | AMAZING BOY B/TT M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 6 | 12.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | REACH GOAL Closed strongly TT A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 12 | 34.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | CHATEAU LE PECHE B1 H T Mo · K H Ting | H T Mo | K H Ting | 10 | 91.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 9 | AMAZINGTEAMWORK TT M F Poon · W K Mo | M F Poon | W K Mo | 3 | 134.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | STURDY RUBY | 26.6% | 3.76 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | WIN WIN FIGHTER | 15.3% | 6.53 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | KASA PAPA | 13.8% | 7.24 | 6 |
| 4 | 2 | DRAGON STAR | 13.2% | 7.60 | 4 |
| 5 | 8 | REACH GOAL | 6.6% | 15.23 | 10 |
| 6 | 1 | LOVERO | 6.1% | 16.43 | 1 |
| 7 | 12 | AMAZING BOY | 5.9% | 17.08 | 9 |
| 8 | 6 | GALVANIC | 5.2% | 19.34 | 5 |
| 9 | 3 | GALLANT CROWN | 3.3% | 30.00 | 7 |
| 10 | 5 | CHATEAU LE PECHE | 2.3% | 44.22 | 11 |
| 11 | 9 | AMAZINGTEAMWORK | 1.1% | 95.19 | 12 |
| 12 | 11 | MERCHANT PRINCE | 0.8% | 131.15 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 71
PLACE
1 25.5
4 21
10 16.5
QUINELLA
1,10 199
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 85
1,10 73
4,10 60
FORECAST
1,10 408
TIERCE
1,10,4 2,194
TRIO
1,4,10 372
FIRST 4
1,2,4,10 210
QUARTET
1,10,4,2 6,223
All pools (3 more)
1ST TREBLE
7/6/1 4,313
7/6/10 597
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,6,12/1,4,10 34,831
4TH DOUBLE
6/1 898.5
6/10 143