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Happy Valley · 2024-02-07 · 11:12

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 2200m Course B 10 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-07 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. ROMANTIC FANTASY, ridden by A Badel and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with SHARPEN BRIGHT second and SERANGOON third. The winner led throughout. The 2.3 favourite SHARPEN BRIGHT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 2.18.64
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 ROMANTIC FANTASY Wire to wire B/TT 2.18.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C S Shum 5 18.0 SH
2 8 SHARPEN BRIGHT Closed strongly CP/XB Z Purton · D J Hall 2 2.3 SH
3 4 SERANGOON Closed strongly CP/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz 7 7.4 SH
4 11 HAPPY HERO CP M Chadwick · M Newnham 3 8.0 SH
5 10 PALACE PAL Closed strongly V M F Poon · D J Hall 9 8.2 N
6 7 JUBILATION V M L Yeung · W Y So 6 12.0 1-1/4
7 6 RUNNING AHEAD TT C L Chau · T P Yung 1 16.0 2
8 1 PRECISE EXPRESS H L Hewitson · P F Yiu 4 23.0 2-1/4
9 9 READY PLAYER ONE PC-/XB/V2/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 10 30.0 2-3/4
10 2 WONDER YEARS B/XB/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte 8 7.6 6-1/4
5 MR ALADDIN K Teetan · P C Ng

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ROMANTIC FANTASY2. SHARPEN BRIGHT+0.1L3. SERANGOON+0.1L4. HAPPY HERO+0.1L5. PALACE PAL+0.05L6. JUBILATION+1.25L7. RUNNING AHEAD+2L8. PRECISE EXPRESS+2.25L9. READY PLAYER ONE+2.75L10. WONDER YEARS+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SHARPEN BRIGHT (40.0%) finished 2nd — the winner ROMANTIC FANTASY was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 SHARPEN BRIGHT 40.0% 2.50 2
2 11 HAPPY HERO 10.1% 9.95 4
3 10 PALACE PAL 9.3% 10.77 5
4 2 WONDER YEARS 8.3% 11.98 10
5 4 SERANGOON 7.6% 13.20 3
6 6 RUNNING AHEAD 7.5% 13.30 7
7 7 JUBILATION 7.2% 13.84 6
8 1 PRECISE EXPRESS 4.7% 21.44 8
9 3 ROMANTIC FANTASY 3.4% 29.00 1
10 9 READY PLAYER ONE 1.9% 52.16 9
SHARPEN BRIGHTHAPPY HEROPALACE PALWONDER YEARSSERANGOONRUNNING AHEADJUBILATIONPRECISE EXPRESSROMANTIC FANTASY — wonREADY PLAYER ONE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 180.5

PLACE

3 48

4 22.5

8 11.5

QUINELLA

3,8 279

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 149

3,8 96.5

4,8 46

FORECAST

3,8 664

TIERCE

3,8,4 3,273

TRIO

3,4,8 436

FIRST 4

3,4,8,11 611

QUARTET

3,8,4,11 22,758

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

7/3 917

7/8 37