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Happy Valley · 2024-02-07 · 12:12

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-07 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SUPER JOY N FUN, ridden by C L Chau and trained by T P Yung, won by HD, with BEAUTY INFINITY second and BEAU GOSSE third. The 2.2 favourite BEAUTY INFINITY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.61
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 SUPER JOY N FUN 1.10.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · T P Yung 9 13.0 HD
2 1 BEAUTY INFINITY Z Purton · J Size 6 2.2 HD
3 12 BEAU GOSSE H-/B/TT M L Yeung · D J Whyte 2 25.0 2-3/4
4 3 TRAVEL GOLF B-/V1/TT B Avdulla · C H Yip 5 7.8 3-1/2
5 10 NORTHERN BEAST B- M F Poon · D J Hall 4 30.0 3-1/2
6 8 BRAVE WITNESS TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 3 12.0 4
7 11 PO ON WAY B M Chadwick · K H Ting 7 14.0 4
8 2 OUR LUCKY GLORY SR-/TT H Bentley · W Y So 10 27.0 4-1/2
9 4 YOUTH POWER H/TT1 K C Leung · D A Hayes 11 123.0 5-1/2
10 9 DIVINE ERA H/TT K Teetan · C Fownes 1 3.8 5-1/2
11 5 FIGHTING MAN XB1/TT1 K De Melo · K W Lui 8 114.0 8
12 7 JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP B E C W Wong · P F Yiu 12 71.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER JOY N FUN2. BEAUTY INFINITY+0.2L3. BEAU GOSSE+2.75L4. TRAVEL GOLF+3.5L5. NORTHERN BEAST+3.5L6. BRAVE WITNESS+4L7. PO ON WAY+4L8. OUR LUCKY GLORY+4.5L9. YOUTH POWER+5.5L10. DIVINE ERA+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BEAUTY INFINITY (22.7%) finished 2nd — the winner SUPER JOY N FUN was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 BEAUTY INFINITY 22.7% 4.41 2
2 9 DIVINE ERA 18.6% 5.37 10
3 3 TRAVEL GOLF 13.7% 7.29 4
4 2 OUR LUCKY GLORY 6.7% 15.00 8
5 5 FIGHTING MAN 6.3% 15.78 11
6 11 PO ON WAY 6.3% 15.89 7
7 6 SUPER JOY N FUN 5.5% 18.09 1
8 10 NORTHERN BEAST 5.4% 18.35 5
9 12 BEAU GOSSE 5.4% 18.57 3
10 8 BRAVE WITNESS 4.9% 20.45 6
11 7 JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP 3.5% 28.18 12
12 4 YOUTH POWER 0.9% 110.52 9
BEAUTY INFINITYDIVINE ERATRAVEL GOLFOUR LUCKY GLORYFIGHTING MANPO ON WAYSUPER JOY N FUN — wonNORTHERN BEASTBEAU GOSSEBRAVE WITNESSJOYFUL FRIENDSHIPYOUTH POWER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 136

PLACE

1 12

6 41

12 52

QUINELLA

1,6 141

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 55

1,12 96.5

6,12 391.5

FORECAST

6,1 492

TIERCE

6,1,12 6,315

TRIO

1,6,12 1,098

FIRST 4

1,3,6,12 997

QUARTET

6,1,12,3 31,095

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

7/1 15

7/6 520.5