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Happy Valley · 2024-02-07 · 11:41

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-07 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. MEDIC ELITE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/4, with MIGHTY STAR second and SUPERB MOVE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite SUPERB MOVE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.41.76
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT 1.41.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng 5 3.1 1-1/4
2 11 MIGHTY STAR Closed strongly B K De Melo · C W Chang 11 29.0 1-1/4
3 2 SUPERB MOVE Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · C H Yip 1 2.6 2-3/4
4 9 CHIRON Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 10 16.0 3
5 10 FOXHUNTER WAY Closed strongly L Hewitson · K W Lui 3 7.7 3-1/4
6 4 CHOICERUS Closed strongly B H Bentley · D J Whyte 6 31.0 5
7 5 HAPPIHOOD B-/CP1/TT Y L Chung · W K Mo 2 110.0 6-1/4
8 6 HAPPY JAI JAI TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 12 17.0 6-1/2
9 1 COURIER MAGIC Closed strongly A Hamelin · J Richards 9 47.0 7-1/2
10 8 FAITHFUL TRINITY B/TT E C W Wong · W Y So 8 26.0 11-3/4
11 3 DAILY TROPHY Led early B-/TT B Avdulla · C Fownes 4 8.8 14
12 12 MISTER ARM H2 H T Mo · Y S Tsui 7 44.0 17-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MEDIC ELITE2. MIGHTY STAR+1.25L3. SUPERB MOVE+2.75L4. CHIRON+3L5. FOXHUNTER WAY+3.25L6. CHOICERUS+5L7. HAPPIHOOD+6.25L8. HAPPY JAI JAI+6.5L9. COURIER MAGIC+7.5L10. FAITHFUL TRINITY+11.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MEDIC ELITE (24.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 MEDIC ELITE 24.0% 4.16 1
2 2 SUPERB MOVE 21.2% 4.71 3
3 3 DAILY TROPHY 14.5% 6.90 11
4 9 CHIRON 9.9% 10.06 4
5 10 FOXHUNTER WAY 8.8% 11.37 5
6 4 CHOICERUS 6.5% 15.44 6
7 6 HAPPY JAI JAI 3.4% 29.08 8
8 5 HAPPIHOOD 3.1% 32.19 7
9 11 MIGHTY STAR 3.1% 32.28 2
10 8 FAITHFUL TRINITY 3.0% 33.89 10
11 12 MISTER ARM 1.3% 77.15 12
12 1 COURIER MAGIC 1.1% 88.05 9
MEDIC ELITE — wonSUPERB MOVEDAILY TROPHYCHIRONFOXHUNTER WAYCHOICERUSHAPPY JAI JAIHAPPIHOODMIGHTY STARFAITHFUL TRINITYMISTER ARMCOURIER MAGIC

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 31

PLACE

2 11

7 15

11 70

QUINELLA

7,11 474.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 20.5

2,11 138

7,11 134.5

FORECAST

7,11 726

TIERCE

7,11,2 2,718

TRIO

2,7,11 333

FIRST 4

2,7,9,11 775

QUARTET

7,11,2,9 17,674

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,8/2,7,11 9,512

2ND DOUBLE

3/7 688

3/11 428