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Happy Valley · 2024-02-07 · 13:47

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-07 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. EIGHTEEN PALMS, ridden by H Bentley and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-3/4, with TOURBILLON PRINCE second and ALL BEAUTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite ROCKET SPADE finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.40.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 EIGHTEEN PALMS Closed strongly B/TT 1.40.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · C S Shum 6 7.9 1-3/4
2 3 TOURBILLON PRINCE Led early TT C L Chau · T P Yung 4 5.2 1-3/4
3 5 ALL BEAUTY Closed strongly A Badel · F C Lor 10 7.7 2
4 8 AESTHETICISM Closed strongly B K Teetan · P C Ng 9 7.5 2-1/4
5 4 LUCKY EIGHT M F Poon · P F Yiu 12 13.0 2-3/4
6 12 ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 8 59.0 3-3/4
7 10 U S S CONSTITUTION B/TT H T Mo · J Size 5 28.0 3-3/4
8 11 D STAR Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 12.0 4-1/4
9 2 ROCKET SPADE XB/TT L Hewitson · C Fownes 3 4.4 4-1/2
10 7 SIXTH GENERATION H/TT M Chadwick · J Richards 7 7.8 4-3/4
11 6 LOYAL BABY H-/TT A Hamelin · W K Mo 2 36.0 5-1/4
12 1 EASON V/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 1 20.0 6

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EIGHTEEN PALMS2. TOURBILLON PRINCE+1.75L3. ALL BEAUTY+2L4. AESTHETICISM+2.25L5. LUCKY EIGHT+2.75L6. ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE+3.75L7. U S S CONSTITUTION+3.75L8. D STAR+4.25L9. ROCKET SPADE+4.5L10. SIXTH GENERATION+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick TOURBILLON PRINCE (17.3%) finished 2nd — the winner EIGHTEEN PALMS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 TOURBILLON PRINCE 17.3% 5.76 2
2 8 AESTHETICISM 16.5% 6.05 4
3 9 EIGHTEEN PALMS 15.4% 6.48 1
4 2 ROCKET SPADE 10.4% 9.60 9
5 5 ALL BEAUTY 8.2% 12.15 3
6 7 SIXTH GENERATION 7.2% 13.84 10
7 4 LUCKY EIGHT 6.4% 15.74 5
8 11 D STAR 5.1% 19.76 8
9 1 EASON 4.9% 20.54 12
10 10 U S S CONSTITUTION 3.4% 29.17 7
11 12 ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE 2.6% 39.06 6
12 6 LOYAL BABY 2.6% 39.18 11
TOURBILLON PRINCEAESTHETICISMEIGHTEEN PALMS — wonROCKET SPADEALL BEAUTYSIXTH GENERATIONLUCKY EIGHTD STAREASONU S S CONSTITUTIONABSOLUTE SUNSHINELOYAL BABY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 79.5

PLACE

3 19

5 27

9 23

QUINELLA

3,9 202

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 76

3,9 65.5

5,9 82.5

FORECAST

9,3 411

TIERCE

9,3,5 1,849

TRIO

3,5,9 302

FIRST 4

3,5,8,9 410

QUARTET

9,3,5,8 9,291

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,11,12/3,5,9 110,487

6TH DOUBLE

12/3 80

12/9 465

TRIPLE TRIO

1,4,10/2,11,12/3,5,9 5,059,718

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,4,10/2,11,12/Any Combination 10,042