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Happy Valley · 2024-02-07 · 14:54

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-07 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SUGAR SUGAR, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with WINGS OF WAR second and CHAIN OF GOLD third. The 2.1 favourite RAGING BLIZZARD finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.10.29
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 SUGAR SUGAR TT 1.10.29 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C Fownes 8 10.0 3/4
2 5 WINGS OF WAR PC-/B2/TT- H Bentley · D J Whyte 5 8.5 3/4
3 9 CHAIN OF GOLD H/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 4 25.0 2-1/4
4 3 RAGING BLIZZARD Z Purton · J Size 12 2.1 2-1/2
5 1 BON'S A PEARLA B A Badel · P C Ng 1 8.8 2-1/2
6 12 GOLDEN SAMURAI B/TT M F Poon · K W Lui 3 11.0 3-1/4
7 4 BEAUTY GLORY CP/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 21.0 3-3/4
8 7 SING DRAGON L Hewitson · M Newnham 2 6.6 4-1/2
9 6 STAR LINE B K De Melo · D J Hall 11 154.0 6
10 2 HEROIC MASTER CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 10 21.0 6-1/2
11 10 GOLDEN TITLE TT1 K C Leung · C S Shum 7 59.0 10-3/4
12 11 SOLAR UP B-/CP1/TT1 M L Yeung · C W Chang 9 130.0 27-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUGAR SUGAR2. WINGS OF WAR+0.75L3. CHAIN OF GOLD+2.25L4. RAGING BLIZZARD+2.5L5. BON'S A PEARLA+2.5L6. GOLDEN SAMURAI+3.25L7. BEAUTY GLORY+3.75L8. SING DRAGON+4.5L9. STAR LINE+6L10. HEROIC MASTER+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick RAGING BLIZZARD (44.2%) finished 4th — the winner SUGAR SUGAR was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 RAGING BLIZZARD 44.2% 2.26 4
2 1 BON'S A PEARLA 13.2% 7.58 5
3 2 HEROIC MASTER 9.6% 10.47 10
4 5 WINGS OF WAR 7.9% 12.66 2
5 8 SUGAR SUGAR 6.6% 15.12 1
6 12 GOLDEN SAMURAI 5.1% 19.79 6
7 7 SING DRAGON 4.0% 25.03 8
8 9 CHAIN OF GOLD 3.5% 28.39 3
9 4 BEAUTY GLORY 2.5% 40.06 7
10 10 GOLDEN TITLE 2.1% 47.73 11
11 11 SOLAR UP 0.7% 146.09 12
12 6 STAR LINE 0.7% 151.54 9
RAGING BLIZZARDBON'S A PEARLAHEROIC MASTERWINGS OF WARSUGAR SUGAR — wonGOLDEN SAMURAISING DRAGONCHAIN OF GOLDBEAUTY GLORYGOLDEN TITLESOLAR UPSTAR LINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 102

PLACE

5 26.5

8 26.5

9 50.5

QUINELLA

5,8 510

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 121.5

5,9 341.5

8,9 296.5

FORECAST

8,5 1,050

TIERCE

8,5,9 17,959

TRIO

5,8,9 4,121

FIRST 4

3,5,8,9 1,044

QUARTET

8,5,9,3 46,608

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

9/4/5 249

9/4/8 1,384

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

4,5,9/5,8,9 125,754

8TH DOUBLE

4/5 49

4/8 269.5

SIX UP

1,6/1,10/2,12/3,9/4,5/5,8 11,883

6/1/12/9/4/8 2,008,416

4 [H Bentley]

4 [C S Shum]