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Happy Valley · 2024-02-28 · 11:12

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-28 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TACTICAL COMMAND, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by N, with MY INTELLIGENT second and MILLENNIUM FALCON third. Victory came as the 5.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.11.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 TACTICAL COMMAND B 1.11.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham 1 5.9 N
2 2 MY INTELLIGENT V/TT H Bowman · W Y So 10 9.4 N
3 9 MILLENNIUM FALCON TT H Bentley · T P Yung 4 6.0 1-1/4
4 7 DOUBLE SHOW B/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte 9 10.0 3
5 11 FORTUNE MASTER PC-/XB/B2/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 6 16.0 3-1/2
6 5 HERO ICON CP-/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 8 26.0 3-1/2
7 4 MODEST GENTLEMAN B/TT A Atzeni · K W Lui 3 7.1 4
8 12 NOIR RIDER B/XB M L Yeung · C W Chang 2 11.0 4-3/4
9 10 EASY TWO H/V/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 12 45.0 5
10 3 FIRE BALL CP B Thompson · C H Yip 7 9.8 5-1/2
11 1 CHIU CHOW BROTHER B/TT1 A Badel · K L Man 5 8.6 8-1/2
12 8 PRECISION GOAL H1/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes 11 9.5 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TACTICAL COMMAND2. MY INTELLIGENT+0.05L3. MILLENNIUM FALCON+1.25L4. DOUBLE SHOW+3L5. FORTUNE MASTER+3.5L6. HERO ICON+3.5L7. MODEST GENTLEMAN+4L8. NOIR RIDER+4.75L9. EASY TWO+5L10. FIRE BALL+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick DOUBLE SHOW (13.4%) finished 4th — the winner TACTICAL COMMAND was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 DOUBLE SHOW 13.4% 7.49 4
2 9 MILLENNIUM FALCON 11.8% 8.45 3
3 4 MODEST GENTLEMAN 11.5% 8.73 7
4 8 PRECISION GOAL 11.1% 9.05 12
5 2 MY INTELLIGENT 9.5% 10.49 2
6 6 TACTICAL COMMAND 8.5% 11.81 1
7 1 CHIU CHOW BROTHER 8.3% 12.06 11
8 11 FORTUNE MASTER 7.5% 13.29 5
9 3 FIRE BALL 6.5% 15.40 10
10 5 HERO ICON 4.4% 22.59 6
11 10 EASY TWO 4.1% 24.42 9
12 12 NOIR RIDER 3.5% 28.90 8
DOUBLE SHOWMILLENNIUM FALCONMODEST GENTLEMANPRECISION GOALMY INTELLIGENTTACTICAL COMMAND — wonCHIU CHOW BROTHERFORTUNE MASTERFIRE BALLHERO ICONEASY TWONOIR RIDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 59

PLACE

2 31

6 23

9 21.5

QUINELLA

2,6 246

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 95

2,9 92.5

6,9 65

FORECAST

6,2 467

TIERCE

6,2,9 2,963

TRIO

2,6,9 420

FIRST 4

2,6,7,9 669

QUARTET

6,2,9,7 13,392

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/2 64.5

3/6 271.5