Happy Valley · 2024-02-28 · 20:11
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | SAMARKAND Closed strongly CP/TT 1.41.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D A Hayes | C L Chau | D A Hayes | 2 | 11.0 | N |
| 2 | 0 | STURDY RUBY Closed strongly TT Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 4 | 2.7 | N |
| 3 | 0 | ATOMIC BEAUTY V/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 8 | 9.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | DRAGON STAR Led early V/XB K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 3 | 4.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | ROYAL PRIDE Closed strongly B-/TT A Hamelin · C Fownes | A Hamelin | C Fownes | 7 | 15.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | GOLD TACK K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 5 | 6.4 | 4 |
| 7 | 0 | YEABOI Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 12 | 23.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 0 | LUCKY GOLD Closed strongly B A Atzeni · K W Lui | A Atzeni | K W Lui | 9 | 18.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | FORTUNE PRESIDENT M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 1 | 35.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP B-/CP2 B Thompson · P F Yiu | B Thompson | P F Yiu | 6 | 36.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | BRAVE WITNESS Closed strongly TT K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 10 | 22.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 0 | MIGHTY ARMOUR PC/TT K H Chan · T P Yung | K H Chan | T P Yung | 11 | 122.0 | 13 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-28 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SAMARKAND, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D A Hayes, won by N, with STURDY RUBY second and ATOMIC BEAUTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite STURDY RUBY finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | STURDY RUBY | 21.2% | 4.71 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | DRAGON STAR | 17.4% | 5.76 | 4 |
| 3 | 0 | SAMARKAND | 14.1% | 7.08 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | ATOMIC BEAUTY | 13.8% | 7.24 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | GOLD TACK | 13.2% | 7.56 | 6 |
| 6 | 0 | YEABOI | 4.6% | 21.71 | 7 |
| 7 | 0 | LUCKY GOLD | 4.5% | 22.16 | 8 |
| 8 | 0 | BRAVE WITNESS | 4.4% | 22.55 | 11 |
| 9 | 0 | ROYAL PRIDE | 2.9% | 34.68 | 5 |
| 10 | 0 | FORTUNE PRESIDENT | 2.2% | 46.15 | 9 |
| 11 | 0 | JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP | 0.9% | 114.36 | 10 |
| 12 | 0 | MIGHTY ARMOUR | 0.8% | 128.75 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 116
PLACE
2 29.5
5 13.5
9 25.5
QUINELLA
2,5 128
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 49
2,9 99
5,9 40
FORECAST
2,5 361
TIERCE
2,5,9 1,669
TRIO
2,5,9 201
FIRST 4
2,3,5,9 132
QUARTET
2,5,9,3 4,295
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
12/2 705
12/5 36.5