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Happy Valley · 2024-02-28 · 14:19

Race 8

Class 3 1200m Course A 10 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-28 was Class 3 over 1200m. SUGAR SUGAR, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with CAPTAIN WIN second and A AMERIC TE SPECSO third. The 3.7 favourite JOYFUL HUNTER finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.10.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 SUGAR SUGAR TT 1.10.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C Fownes 10 8.9 1/2
2 9 CAPTAIN WIN B K Teetan · P C Ng 9 24.0 1/2
3 3 A AMERIC TE SPECSO B A Hamelin · J Size 2 6.2 2
4 8 DENFIELD CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 5 4.5 2-1/2
5 5 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 14.0 2-1/2
6 7 CHAIN OF GOLD H/CP1/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 4 9.3 2-3/4
7 2 JOYFUL HUNTER TT A Atzeni · K W Lui 6 3.7 4-1/4
8 1 EASON V/TT H Bowman · F C Lor 7 17.0 4-1/2
9 6 ACE ONE B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 8 35.0 8-1/4
10 10 ONE FOR ALL B/XB1/TT B Thompson · M Newnham 3 6.7 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUGAR SUGAR2. CAPTAIN WIN+0.5L3. A AMERIC TE SPECSO+2L4. DENFIELD+2.5L5. VIVA GRACIOUSNESS+2.5L6. CHAIN OF GOLD+2.75L7. JOYFUL HUNTER+4.25L8. EASON+4.5L9. ACE ONE+8.25L10. ONE FOR ALL+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick JOYFUL HUNTER (23.3%) finished 7th — the winner SUGAR SUGAR was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 JOYFUL HUNTER 23.3% 4.28 7
2 8 DENFIELD 17.0% 5.87 4
3 1 EASON 11.3% 8.87 8
4 3 A AMERIC TE SPECSO 9.4% 10.66 3
5 4 SUGAR SUGAR 8.8% 11.36 1
6 10 ONE FOR ALL 8.6% 11.62 10
7 5 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS 6.6% 15.15 5
8 9 CAPTAIN WIN 5.9% 16.85 2
9 7 CHAIN OF GOLD 5.2% 19.27 6
10 6 ACE ONE 3.8% 26.09 9
JOYFUL HUNTERDENFIELDEASONA AMERIC TE SPECSOSUGAR SUGAR — wonONE FOR ALLVIVA GRACIOUSNESSCAPTAIN WINCHAIN OF GOLDACE ONE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 89

PLACE

3 20

4 26

9 56

QUINELLA

4,9 788.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 64.5

3,9 204.5

4,9 225.5

FORECAST

4,9 1,521

TIERCE

4,9,3 8,856

TRIO

3,4,9 1,354

FIRST 4

3,4,8,9 1,315

QUARTET

4,9,3,8 39,533

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

10/4 1,366.5

10/9 378