Happy Valley · 2024-02-28 · 14:19
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-02-28 was Class 3 over 1200m. SUGAR SUGAR, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with CAPTAIN WIN second and A AMERIC TE SPECSO third. The 3.7 favourite JOYFUL HUNTER finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SUGAR SUGAR TT 1.10.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 10 | 8.9 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 9 | CAPTAIN WIN B K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 9 | 24.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO B A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 2 | 6.2 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | DENFIELD CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 5 | 4.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | VIVA GRACIOUSNESS B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 14.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | CHAIN OF GOLD H/CP1/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 4 | 9.3 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | JOYFUL HUNTER TT A Atzeni · K W Lui | A Atzeni | K W Lui | 6 | 3.7 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | EASON V/TT H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 7 | 17.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | ACE ONE B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 8 | 35.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | ONE FOR ALL B/XB1/TT B Thompson · M Newnham | B Thompson | M Newnham | 3 | 6.7 | 9-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | JOYFUL HUNTER | 23.3% | 4.28 | 7 |
| 2 | 8 | DENFIELD | 17.0% | 5.87 | 4 |
| 3 | 1 | EASON | 11.3% | 8.87 | 8 |
| 4 | 3 | A AMERIC TE SPECSO | 9.4% | 10.66 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | SUGAR SUGAR | 8.8% | 11.36 | 1 |
| 6 | 10 | ONE FOR ALL | 8.6% | 11.62 | 10 |
| 7 | 5 | VIVA GRACIOUSNESS | 6.6% | 15.15 | 5 |
| 8 | 9 | CAPTAIN WIN | 5.9% | 16.85 | 2 |
| 9 | 7 | CHAIN OF GOLD | 5.2% | 19.27 | 6 |
| 10 | 6 | ACE ONE | 3.8% | 26.09 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 89
PLACE
3 20
4 26
9 56
QUINELLA
4,9 788.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 64.5
3,9 204.5
4,9 225.5
FORECAST
4,9 1,521
TIERCE
4,9,3 8,856
TRIO
3,4,9 1,354
FIRST 4
3,4,8,9 1,315
QUARTET
4,9,3,8 39,533
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
10/4 1,366.5
10/9 378