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Happy Valley · 2024-04-17 · 10:42

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1000m Course C 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-04-17 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SUPER AXIOM, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 2-3/4, with MODEST GENTLEMAN second and SWEET DIAMOND third. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.57.26
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT 0.57.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · Y S Tsui 6 2.4 2-3/4
2 7 MODEST GENTLEMAN B/TT C L Chau · C H Yip 4 23.0 2-3/4
3 6 SWEET DIAMOND TT A Badel · P F Yiu 12 12.0 2-3/4
4 3 HERO STAR TT Y L Chung · K L Man 7 7.8 3-3/4
5 8 TIMESTORM V H Bowman · D J Hall 10 10.0 3-3/4
6 4 SAME TO YOU H/P/TT B Thompson · M Newnham 5 44.0 4-1/4
7 11 GOODMANSHIP B/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 2 10.0 4-1/2
8 1 KING INVINCIBLE B/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 11 7.3 5
9 9 ISLAND SURPRISE V-/PC1/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 8 29.0 5
10 2 ALLOY KING V H Bentley · K H Ting 3 15.0 5-1/4
11 10 AUGUST MOON BO/TT K C Leung · J Richards 9 29.0 5-3/4
12 12 NOIR RIDER B M L Yeung · C W Chang 1 14.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER AXIOM2. MODEST GENTLEMAN+2.75L3. SWEET DIAMOND+2.75L4. HERO STAR+3.75L5. TIMESTORM+3.75L6. SAME TO YOU+4.25L7. GOODMANSHIP+4.5L8. KING INVINCIBLE+5L9. ISLAND SURPRISE+5L10. ALLOY KING+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GOODMANSHIP (15.0%) finished 7th — the winner SUPER AXIOM was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 GOODMANSHIP 15.0% 6.68 7
2 1 KING INVINCIBLE 14.3% 7.00 8
3 6 SWEET DIAMOND 12.9% 7.74 3
4 8 TIMESTORM 9.5% 10.56 5
5 7 MODEST GENTLEMAN 9.3% 10.80 2
6 9 ISLAND SURPRISE 9.1% 10.94 9
7 3 HERO STAR 7.9% 12.66 4
8 5 SUPER AXIOM 7.3% 13.65 1
9 12 NOIR RIDER 4.7% 21.36 12
10 2 ALLOY KING 4.5% 22.05 10
11 10 AUGUST MOON 3.5% 28.38 11
12 4 SAME TO YOU 2.0% 50.24 6
GOODMANSHIPKING INVINCIBLESWEET DIAMONDTIMESTORMMODEST GENTLEMANISLAND SURPRISEHERO STARSUPER AXIOM — wonNOIR RIDERALLOY KINGAUGUST MOONSAME TO YOU

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 24.5

PLACE

5 16

6 37

7 57

QUINELLA

5,7 343

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 72.5

5,7 121

6,7 250

FORECAST

5,7 437

TIERCE

5,7,6 3,749

TRIO

5,6,7 1,064

FIRST 4

3,5,6,7 1,542

QUARTET

5,7,6,3 30,147