Happy Valley · 2024-04-17 · 10:42
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-04-17 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SUPER AXIOM, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 2-3/4, with MODEST GENTLEMAN second and SWEET DIAMOND third. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT 0.57.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · Y S Tsui | E C W Wong | Y S Tsui | 6 | 2.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 7 | MODEST GENTLEMAN B/TT C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 4 | 23.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 6 | SWEET DIAMOND TT A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 12 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | HERO STAR TT Y L Chung · K L Man | Y L Chung | K L Man | 7 | 7.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | TIMESTORM V H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 10 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 4 | SAME TO YOU H/P/TT B Thompson · M Newnham | B Thompson | M Newnham | 5 | 44.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 11 | GOODMANSHIP B/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 2 | 10.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 1 | KING INVINCIBLE B/TT Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 11 | 7.3 | 5 |
| 9 | 9 | ISLAND SURPRISE V-/PC1/TT K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 8 | 29.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 2 | ALLOY KING V H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 3 | 15.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | AUGUST MOON BO/TT K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 9 | 29.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | NOIR RIDER B M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 1 | 14.0 | 7-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | GOODMANSHIP | 15.0% | 6.68 | 7 |
| 2 | 1 | KING INVINCIBLE | 14.3% | 7.00 | 8 |
| 3 | 6 | SWEET DIAMOND | 12.9% | 7.74 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | TIMESTORM | 9.5% | 10.56 | 5 |
| 5 | 7 | MODEST GENTLEMAN | 9.3% | 10.80 | 2 |
| 6 | 9 | ISLAND SURPRISE | 9.1% | 10.94 | 9 |
| 7 | 3 | HERO STAR | 7.9% | 12.66 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | SUPER AXIOM | 7.3% | 13.65 | 1 |
| 9 | 12 | NOIR RIDER | 4.7% | 21.36 | 12 |
| 10 | 2 | ALLOY KING | 4.5% | 22.05 | 10 |
| 11 | 10 | AUGUST MOON | 3.5% | 28.38 | 11 |
| 12 | 4 | SAME TO YOU | 2.0% | 50.24 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 24.5
PLACE
5 16
6 37
7 57
QUINELLA
5,7 343
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 72.5
5,7 121
6,7 250
FORECAST
5,7 437
TIERCE
5,7,6 3,749
TRIO
5,6,7 1,064
FIRST 4
3,5,6,7 1,542
QUARTET
5,7,6,3 30,147