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Happy Valley · 2024-04-17 · 13:12

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 11 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2024-04-17 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIA TOUCH, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by W K Mo, won by N, with KA YING CHEER second and MY INTELLIGENT third. The 2.6 favourite KA YING CHEER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 CALIFORNIA TOUCH TT 1.09.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · W K Mo 1 17.0 N
2 1 KA YING CHEER B- H Bowman · P C Ng 3 2.6 N
3 12 MY INTELLIGENT V/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 10 12.0 4-3/4
4 10 COUNTRY DANCER PC Z Purton · J Size 5 4.8 5-1/2
5 9 MULTIDARLING TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 9 28.0 7-1/2
6 11 CHEER FOR SOUTH SR Y L Chung · F C Lor 8 8.9 7-3/4
7 4 CHAMPION METHOD B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 11 16.0 8-3/4
8 2 RUN RUN TIMING TT E C W Wong · C H Yip 2 5.2 9-3/4
9 7 SO TREASURE L Ferraris · M Newnham 4 25.0 10-1/2
10 6 SILVER SPURS SR/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 39.0 11-1/4
11 5 IVICTORIAM PC1/TT1 A Hamelin · J Richards 7 54.0 14-1/4
8 GLORY B K De Melo · D J Whyte

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CALIFORNIA TOUCH2. KA YING CHEER+0.05L3. MY INTELLIGENT+4.75L4. COUNTRY DANCER+5.5L5. MULTIDARLING+7.5L6. CHEER FOR SOUTH+7.75L7. CHAMPION METHOD+8.75L8. RUN RUN TIMING+9.75L9. SO TREASURE+10.5L10. SILVER SPURS+11.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick KA YING CHEER (26.5%) finished 2nd — the winner CALIFORNIA TOUCH was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 KA YING CHEER 26.5% 3.77 2
2 2 RUN RUN TIMING 19.0% 5.26 8
3 10 COUNTRY DANCER 16.5% 6.07 4
4 4 CHAMPION METHOD 8.3% 12.09 7
5 11 CHEER FOR SOUTH 8.0% 12.47 6
6 12 MY INTELLIGENT 6.2% 16.06 3
7 9 MULTIDARLING 5.5% 18.22 5
8 7 SO TREASURE 4.1% 24.10 9
9 5 IVICTORIAM 2.6% 38.18 11
10 3 CALIFORNIA TOUCH 2.5% 39.47 1
11 6 SILVER SPURS 0.7% 141.52 10
KA YING CHEERRUN RUN TIMINGCOUNTRY DANCERCHAMPION METHODCHEER FOR SOUTHMY INTELLIGENTMULTIDARLINGSO TREASUREIVICTORIAMCALIFORNIA TOUCH — wonSILVER SPURS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 173.5

PLACE

1 13

3 37

12 36

QUINELLA

1,3 208

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 74.5

1,12 66.5

3,12 155.5

FORECAST

3,1 654

TIERCE

3,1,12 5,149

TRIO

1,3,12 602

FIRST 4

1,3,10,12 853

QUARTET

3,1,12,10 27,412

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

3/1,8 42

3/3 863