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Happy Valley · 2024-04-17 · 22:18

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.41.21
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 TURIN WARRIOR Closed strongly B/XB 1.41.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · K L Man 5 6.3 1
2 3 JUMBO LEGEND Closed strongly H/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 8.0 1
3 7 SETANTA Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 9 20.0 1
4 2 COMET SPLENDIDO TT E C W Wong · C S Shum 1 7.3 1-3/4
5 5 PRECISE EXPRESS Closed strongly H K C Leung · P F Yiu 11 34.0 4
6 4 GOLDEN DARCI P/XB H Bowman · D J Hall 4 5.1 4-1/2
7 12 AROMATICA Closed strongly TT K De Melo · W Y So 12 118.0 4-1/2
8 11 TO INFINITY B/TT H Bentley · J Richards 2 20.0 5-1/2
9 1 EXCEL WONGCHOY Led early TT1 A Badel · P C Ng 6 10.0 8-1/2
10 6 STRONGEST BOY B/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 8 4.0 8-3/4
11 10 UNITED ENDEAVORS H/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 7 12.0 12-3/4
12 9 LOOKING COOL CP-/SR1/V1 Y L Chung · F C Lor 3 27.0 13-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-04-17 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. TURIN WARRIOR, ridden by K Teetan and trained by K L Man, won by 1, with JUMBO LEGEND second and SETANTA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite STRONGEST BOY finished 10th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TURIN WARRIOR—2. JUMBO LEGEND+1L3. SETANTA+1L4. COMET SPLENDIDO+1.75L5. PRECISE EXPRESS+4L6. GOLDEN DARCI+4.5L7. AROMATICA+4.5L8. TO INFINITY+5.5L9. EXCEL WONGCHOY+8.5L10. STRONGEST BOY+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick STRONGEST BOY (24.0%) finished 10th — the winner TURIN WARRIOR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 STRONGEST BOY 24.0% 4.17 10
2 4 GOLDEN DARCI 13.7% 7.28 6
3 8 TURIN WARRIOR 12.5% 8.03 1
4 11 TO INFINITY 10.5% 9.50 8
5 10 UNITED ENDEAVORS 9.4% 10.61 11
6 2 COMET SPLENDIDO 8.8% 11.34 4
7 3 JUMBO LEGEND 7.5% 13.34 2
8 7 SETANTA 3.8% 26.52 3
9 5 PRECISE EXPRESS 3.1% 31.91 5
10 1 EXCEL WONGCHOY 3.0% 33.66 9
11 9 LOOKING COOL 2.3% 43.46 12
12 12 AROMATICA 1.4% 71.75 7
STRONGEST BOYGOLDEN DARCITURIN WARRIOR — wonTO INFINITYUNITED ENDEAVORSCOMET SPLENDIDOJUMBO LEGENDSETANTAPRECISE EXPRESSEXCEL WONGCHOYLOOKING COOLAROMATICA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 63.5

PLACE

3 22.5

7 63.5

8 19.5

QUINELLA

3,8 254

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 366.5

3,8 81

7,8 224.5

FORECAST

8,3 452

TIERCE

8,3,7 8,287

TRIO

3,7,8 1,811

FIRST 4

2,3,7,8 3,313

QUARTET

8,3,7,2 66,077

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

2/3 128

2/8 721.5