Happy Valley · 2024-04-24 · 10:42
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-04-24 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY WAVES, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by HD, with YOUTHFUL SPIRITS second and SUPER FORTUNE third. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BEAUTY WAVES TT 0.56.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 7 | 2.0 | HD |
| 2 | 7 | YOUTHFUL SPIRITS H/SR/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 3 | 9.2 | HD |
| 3 | 5 | SUPER FORTUNE H-/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 5 | 27.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | HARMONY FIRE SR/TT E C W Wong · D J Whyte | E C W Wong | D J Whyte | 6 | 3.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | HEROIC MASTER CP/TT H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 4 | 7.2 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | HAPPY UNITED P-/PC1/TT Y L Chung · J Richards | Y L Chung | J Richards | 2 | 22.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 6 | MAJESTIC EXPRESS B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 1 | 11.0 | 4-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BEAUTY WAVES | 46.7% | 2.14 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | HARMONY FIRE | 16.0% | 6.24 | 4 |
| 3 | 2 | HEROIC MASTER | 14.0% | 7.13 | 5 |
| 4 | 3 | HAPPY UNITED | 9.9% | 10.07 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | MAJESTIC EXPRESS | 7.7% | 13.02 | 7 |
| 6 | 7 | YOUTHFUL SPIRITS | 3.2% | 31.15 | 2 |
| 7 | 5 | SUPER FORTUNE | 2.5% | 40.47 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 20
PLACE
1 10.1
5 44
7 22.5
QUINELLA
1,7 86
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 64
1,7 36.5
5,7 199.5
FORECAST
1,7 124
TIERCE
1,7,5 1,134
TRIO
1,5,7 367
FIRST 4
1,4,5,7 249
QUARTET
1,7,5,4 5,627