Happy Valley · 2024-04-24 · 14:54
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2024-04-24 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. FLAMINGO TRILLION, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with BERLIN TANGO second and NOBLE PURSUIT third. The winner led throughout. The 3.3 favourite NOBLE PURSUIT finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | FLAMINGO TRILLION Wire to wire 1.50.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 7 | 3.8 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly B/H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 11 | 14.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | NOBLE PURSUIT Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · C Fownes | A Atzeni | C Fownes | 1 | 3.3 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | GALLANT WAKING Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 8.7 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | KIMBERLEY B/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 12 | 17.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 12 | SMILING TIME Closed strongly V/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 2 | 17.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | INTREPID WINNER Closed strongly B K De Melo · C W Chang | K De Melo | C W Chang | 9 | 13.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | DEVILDOM B-/TT1 L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 3 | 9.5 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | AFFORDABLE CP/TT B Thompson · D A Hayes | B Thompson | D A Hayes | 8 | 66.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 4 | EIGHTEEN PALMS B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 5 | 8.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 11 | TRADITION B M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 4 | 85.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | TRUE GENIUS H/B1/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 10 | 40.0 | 13-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | NOBLE PURSUIT | 18.3% | 5.48 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | EIGHTEEN PALMS | 14.4% | 6.93 | 10 |
| 3 | 9 | FLAMINGO TRILLION | 12.3% | 8.10 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | GALLANT WAKING | 11.3% | 8.85 | 4 |
| 5 | 2 | BERLIN TANGO | 11.2% | 8.97 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | DEVILDOM | 8.3% | 12.01 | 8 |
| 7 | 12 | SMILING TIME | 6.9% | 14.45 | 6 |
| 8 | 10 | KIMBERLEY | 6.7% | 14.90 | 5 |
| 9 | 7 | INTREPID WINNER | 6.3% | 15.82 | 7 |
| 10 | 8 | AFFORDABLE | 1.8% | 55.36 | 9 |
| 11 | 11 | TRADITION | 1.4% | 72.45 | 11 |
| 12 | 5 | TRUE GENIUS | 1.0% | 96.15 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 38.5
PLACE
2 37
3 16.5
9 16
QUINELLA
2,9 408
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 89.5
2,9 124
3,9 31.5
FORECAST
9,2 630
TIERCE
9,2,3 2,439
TRIO
2,3,9 351
FIRST 4
1,2,3,9 398
QUARTET
9,2,3,1 12,185
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
2/4,12/2 355
2/4,12/9 656
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
2,10>4,12/2,3,9 8,909
8TH DOUBLE
4,12/2 71
4,12/9 171.5
SIX UP
2,5/5,7/6,10/2,7/2,4,10,12/2,9 1,088
5/5/6/2/4,12/9 87,003
2 [P C Ng] —
9 [H Bentley] —