Happy Valley · 2024-04-24 · 12:12
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-04-24 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SERGEANT PEPPER, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by Y S Tsui, won by N, with FORTUNE WARRIOR second and LEAN MASTER third. The 3.7 favourite GORGEOUS VITALITY finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SERGEANT PEPPER 0.57.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · Y S Tsui | E C W Wong | Y S Tsui | 2 | 4.0 | N |
| 2 | 2 | FORTUNE WARRIOR PC- K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 12 | 8.9 | N |
| 3 | 9 | LEAN MASTER B/TT H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 11 | 8.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | GREAT ACHIEVER B1 Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 5 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | PHILOS H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 6 | 32.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | GORGEOUS VITALITY B1 L Hewitson · F C Lor | L Hewitson | F C Lor | 4 | 3.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 1 | MA COMET P/TT B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 8 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | FAIRY HORSE H-/TT A Atzeni · C Fownes | A Atzeni | C Fownes | 9 | 136.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 10 | CIRCUIT SEVEN B/H/TT M F Poon · W K Mo | M F Poon | W K Mo | 10 | 17.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | GRAND NOVA E1 H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 7 | 9.5 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT L Ferraris · W Y So | L Ferraris | W Y So | 3 | 17.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | CHARITY FOR ALL TT1 K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 1 | 23.0 | 4-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SERGEANT PEPPER | 18.8% | 5.32 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | GREAT ACHIEVER | 17.3% | 5.78 | 4 |
| 3 | 4 | GRAND NOVA | 15.2% | 6.59 | 10 |
| 4 | 11 | GORGEOUS VITALITY | 10.0% | 9.99 | 6 |
| 5 | 2 | FORTUNE WARRIOR | 7.7% | 12.92 | 2 |
| 6 | 9 | LEAN MASTER | 7.5% | 13.28 | 3 |
| 7 | 10 | CIRCUIT SEVEN | 6.5% | 15.31 | 9 |
| 8 | 3 | CHARITY FOR ALL | 6.1% | 16.30 | 12 |
| 9 | 7 | STRIVE FOR GLORY | 5.9% | 16.97 | 11 |
| 10 | 12 | PHILOS | 2.3% | 43.75 | 5 |
| 11 | 1 | MA COMET | 1.6% | 63.18 | 7 |
| 12 | 6 | FAIRY HORSE | 1.0% | 96.98 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 40
PLACE
2 27
5 15.5
9 26
QUINELLA
2,5 230
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 84.5
2,9 136
5,9 64
FORECAST
5,2 408
TIERCE
5,2,9 2,381
TRIO
2,5,9 594
FIRST 4
2,5,8,9 1,034
QUARTET
5,2,9,8 19,672
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
7/2 156
7/5 328