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Happy Valley · 2024-04-24 · 11:42

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-04-24 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SWEET DIAMOND, ridden by H Bentley and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with BEAU GOSSE second and MR GOOD VIBES third. The 4.2 favourite BEAU GOSSE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.61
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 SWEET DIAMOND TT 1.10.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · P F Yiu 5 6.2 1/2
2 3 BEAU GOSSE B/TT H Bowman · D J Whyte 4 4.2 1/2
3 4 MR GOOD VIBES B K Teetan · D J Hall 1 7.2 3/4
4 12 EASY TWO H/TT Y L Chung · K H Ting 8 35.0 2-1/4
5 1 NOBLE ONE B C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 30.0 2-3/4
6 9 VIVA A LA B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 6 4.3 2-3/4
7 6 STORMTROUPER E-/XB-/TT2 A Hamelin · C H Yip 3 12.0 3-1/4
8 2 TACTICAL COMMAND B Z Purton · M Newnham 7 6.6 3-1/2
9 8 WIND SPEEDER B- M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 12 30.0 4-1/2
10 10 HERO ICON TT A Atzeni · W K Mo 2 18.0 5
11 11 MILLENNIUM FALCON TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 10 21.0 5-1/2
12 5 PODIUM B/TT A Badel · C W Chang 11 44.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SWEET DIAMOND2. BEAU GOSSE+0.5L3. MR GOOD VIBES+0.75L4. EASY TWO+2.25L5. NOBLE ONE+2.75L6. VIVA A LA+2.75L7. STORMTROUPER+3.25L8. TACTICAL COMMAND+3.5L9. WIND SPEEDER+4.5L10. HERO ICON+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MR GOOD VIBES (18.6%) finished 3rd — the winner SWEET DIAMOND was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 MR GOOD VIBES 18.6% 5.39 3
2 2 TACTICAL COMMAND 17.1% 5.84 8
3 7 SWEET DIAMOND 12.8% 7.80 1
4 1 NOBLE ONE 9.1% 10.98 5
5 9 VIVA A LA 8.1% 12.39 6
6 8 WIND SPEEDER 7.0% 14.27 9
7 3 BEAU GOSSE 7.0% 14.35 2
8 6 STORMTROUPER 5.3% 18.97 7
9 10 HERO ICON 5.0% 20.13 10
10 11 MILLENNIUM FALCON 4.0% 24.96 11
11 12 EASY TWO 3.9% 25.50 4
12 5 PODIUM 2.2% 46.07 12
MR GOOD VIBESTACTICAL COMMANDSWEET DIAMOND — wonNOBLE ONEVIVA A LAWIND SPEEDERBEAU GOSSESTORMTROUPERHERO ICONMILLENNIUM FALCONEASY TWOPODIUM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 62.5

PLACE

3 17.5

4 25.5

7 20

QUINELLA

3,7 132.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 52.5

3,7 53

4,7 72.5

FORECAST

7,3 305

TIERCE

7,3,4 1,570

TRIO

3,4,7 329

FIRST 4

3,4,7,12 2,087

QUARTET

7,3,4,12 39,646

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,8/3,4,7 52,504

2ND DOUBLE

2/3 51.5

2/7 738