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Happy Valley · 2024-04-24 · 11:12

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1800m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-04-24 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. AMAZING BOY, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by C W Chang, won by NOSE, with GO GO GO second and PRECISION GOAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.6 favourite LOYAL AMBITION finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.50.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 AMAZING BOY Closed strongly B-/TT 1.50.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · C W Chang 2 8.4 NOSE
2 5 GO GO GO Closed strongly P1/TT Z Purton · W Y So 10 7.9 NOSE
3 8 PRECISION GOAL Led early H-/TT H Bentley · D A Hayes 1 8.5 HD
4 7 LOYAL AMBITION Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 5.6 1-3/4
5 9 DIAMOND WINNER Closed strongly H- A Hamelin · J Size 11 14.0 2
6 11 BROTHER PEARL Closed strongly CP A Badel · C H Yip 7 10.0 2-1/4
7 4 SUNNY SHINES Closed strongly E C W Wong · P C Ng 12 59.0 2-3/4
8 3 NINJA DERBY H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 5 11.0 4-1/2
9 10 FOXHUNTER WAY M F Poon · K W Lui 9 12.0 5
10 1 SPLENDID STAR SR-/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 3 6.3 5-1/4
11 12 SUPER HORNET B-/XB/V1/TT B Thompson · J Richards 4 30.0 6-1/2
12 6 CIRCUIT ELITE B/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 8 7.9 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AMAZING BOY2. GO GO GO+0.05L3. PRECISION GOAL+0.2L4. LOYAL AMBITION+1.75L5. DIAMOND WINNER+2L6. BROTHER PEARL+2.25L7. SUNNY SHINES+2.75L8. NINJA DERBY+4.5L9. FOXHUNTER WAY+5L10. SPLENDID STAR+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LOYAL AMBITION (15.4%) finished 4th — the winner AMAZING BOY was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 LOYAL AMBITION 15.4% 6.49 4
2 3 NINJA DERBY 13.7% 7.30 8
3 8 PRECISION GOAL 11.4% 8.77 3
4 5 GO GO GO 11.0% 9.12 2
5 11 BROTHER PEARL 8.6% 11.56 6
6 6 CIRCUIT ELITE 7.8% 12.75 12
7 1 SPLENDID STAR 7.4% 13.50 10
8 2 AMAZING BOY 7.3% 13.71 1
9 10 FOXHUNTER WAY 6.1% 16.30 9
10 9 DIAMOND WINNER 4.8% 20.82 5
11 12 SUPER HORNET 3.3% 30.37 11
12 4 SUNNY SHINES 3.1% 32.34 7
LOYAL AMBITIONNINJA DERBYPRECISION GOALGO GO GOBROTHER PEARLCIRCUIT ELITESPLENDID STARAMAZING BOY — wonFOXHUNTER WAYDIAMOND WINNERSUPER HORNETSUNNY SHINES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 84

PLACE

2 26.5

5 28

8 29.5

QUINELLA

2,5 340.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 119.5

2,8 129

5,8 146.5

FORECAST

2,5 648

TIERCE

2,5,8 5,451

TRIO

2,5,8 1,053

FIRST 4

2,5,7,8 1,248

QUARTET

2,5,8,7 32,028

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/2 183.5

1/5 40