Happy Valley · 2024-04-24 · 11:12
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-04-24 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. AMAZING BOY, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by C W Chang, won by NOSE, with GO GO GO second and PRECISION GOAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.6 favourite LOYAL AMBITION finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | AMAZING BOY Closed strongly B-/TT 1.50.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 2 | 8.4 | NOSE |
| 2 | 5 | GO GO GO Closed strongly P1/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 10 | 7.9 | NOSE |
| 3 | 8 | PRECISION GOAL Led early H-/TT H Bentley · D A Hayes | H Bentley | D A Hayes | 1 | 8.5 | HD |
| 4 | 7 | LOYAL AMBITION Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 6 | 5.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | DIAMOND WINNER Closed strongly H- A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 11 | 14.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 11 | BROTHER PEARL Closed strongly CP A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 7 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | SUNNY SHINES Closed strongly E C W Wong · P C Ng | E C W Wong | P C Ng | 12 | 59.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | NINJA DERBY H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 5 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | FOXHUNTER WAY M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 9 | 12.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 1 | SPLENDID STAR SR-/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 3 | 6.3 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | SUPER HORNET B-/XB/V1/TT B Thompson · J Richards | B Thompson | J Richards | 4 | 30.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | CIRCUIT ELITE B/TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 8 | 7.9 | 7-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | LOYAL AMBITION | 15.4% | 6.49 | 4 |
| 2 | 3 | NINJA DERBY | 13.7% | 7.30 | 8 |
| 3 | 8 | PRECISION GOAL | 11.4% | 8.77 | 3 |
| 4 | 5 | GO GO GO | 11.0% | 9.12 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | BROTHER PEARL | 8.6% | 11.56 | 6 |
| 6 | 6 | CIRCUIT ELITE | 7.8% | 12.75 | 12 |
| 7 | 1 | SPLENDID STAR | 7.4% | 13.50 | 10 |
| 8 | 2 | AMAZING BOY | 7.3% | 13.71 | 1 |
| 9 | 10 | FOXHUNTER WAY | 6.1% | 16.30 | 9 |
| 10 | 9 | DIAMOND WINNER | 4.8% | 20.82 | 5 |
| 11 | 12 | SUPER HORNET | 3.3% | 30.37 | 11 |
| 12 | 4 | SUNNY SHINES | 3.1% | 32.34 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 84
PLACE
2 26.5
5 28
8 29.5
QUINELLA
2,5 340.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 119.5
2,8 129
5,8 146.5
FORECAST
2,5 648
TIERCE
2,5,8 5,451
TRIO
2,5,8 1,053
FIRST 4
2,5,7,8 1,248
QUARTET
2,5,8,7 32,028
All pools (1 more)
1ST DOUBLE
1/2 183.5
1/5 40