Happy Valley · 2024-05-01 · 10:43
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-01 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. MODEST GENTLEMAN, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C H Yip, won by N, with KING INVINCIBLE second and AUGUST MOON third. Victory came as the 5.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | MODEST GENTLEMAN B/TT 0.57.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 2 | 5.1 | N |
| 2 | 3 | KING INVINCIBLE B/TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 3 | 6.0 | N |
| 3 | 9 | AUGUST MOON BO/TT K De Melo · J Richards | K De Melo | J Richards | 5 | 9.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | TACTICAL COMMAND B A Badel · M Newnham | A Badel | M Newnham | 6 | 7.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | DASHING GLORY K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 7 | 22.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 1 | DIAMOND SOARS TT H Bowman · P F Yiu | H Bowman | P F Yiu | 11 | 6.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | ISLAND SURPRISE PC/TT H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 8 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | THE GOOD DEAL CP/TT A Atzeni · D J Whyte | A Atzeni | D J Whyte | 12 | 10.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | HAPPILY FRIENDS V-/TT1 M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 10 | 18.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 8 | CRAIG'S MASTER H-/V-/XB1/B2/TT- A Hamelin · D J Hall | A Hamelin | D J Hall | 4 | 35.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 11 | 6 | MULTIMORE B2/TT H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 1 | 8.9 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | SIX BEST FRIENDS CP/TT Y L Chung · K L Man | Y L Chung | K L Man | 9 | 31.0 | 12-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | MODEST GENTLEMAN | 18.1% | 5.51 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | KING INVINCIBLE | 16.5% | 6.05 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | TACTICAL COMMAND | 15.9% | 6.30 | 4 |
| 4 | 6 | MULTIMORE | 10.9% | 9.14 | 11 |
| 5 | 1 | DIAMOND SOARS | 9.3% | 10.72 | 6 |
| 6 | 5 | THE GOOD DEAL | 7.0% | 14.20 | 8 |
| 7 | 7 | ISLAND SURPRISE | 6.2% | 16.18 | 7 |
| 8 | 9 | AUGUST MOON | 5.2% | 19.34 | 3 |
| 9 | 11 | HAPPILY FRIENDS | 3.1% | 32.07 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | SIX BEST FRIENDS | 2.9% | 34.36 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | DASHING GLORY | 2.5% | 40.67 | 5 |
| 12 | 8 | CRAIG'S MASTER | 2.3% | 43.01 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 51.5
PLACE
3 22.5
4 19.5
9 26.5
QUINELLA
3,4 141.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 57
3,9 91.5
4,9 103
FORECAST
4,3 319
TIERCE
4,3,9 2,534
TRIO
3,4,9 521
FIRST 4
2,3,4,9 705
QUARTET
4,3,9,2 13,728