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Happy Valley · 2024-05-01 · 19:41

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD TO YIELDING 1650m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.41.62
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 DRAGON DELIGHT Closed strongly B/TT 1.41.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · D A Hayes 7 6.5 2-1/2
2 5 BIG TWO Closed strongly SR/XB/TT H Bowman · D J Whyte 4 2.8 2-1/2
3 2 MASTER OF LUCK Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · M Newnham 10 13.0 2-3/4
4 12 HANG'S CHOICE B/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 2 40.0 3
5 9 HAPPIHOOD Closed strongly CP/TT L Hewitson · W K Mo 3 49.0 4-1/4
6 10 MIGHTY STAR Closed strongly B K Teetan · C W Chang 9 14.0 6-3/4
7 4 RATTAN WORLD Closed strongly B-/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 11 27.0 9
8 1 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/XB Z Purton · D J Hall 12 12.0 9-1/4
9 7 PRESTIGE MOOCHI B-/TT B Thompson · C H Yip 5 26.0 10-1/4
10 8 DRAGON KINGDOM Led early M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 1 24.0 11-1/4
11 11 EAGLE RUN TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 3.3 14-1/2
12 3 V LOVE YOU B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 8 76.0 31

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-01 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. DRAGON DELIGHT, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by D A Hayes, won by 2-1/2, with BIG TWO second and MASTER OF LUCK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite BIG TWO finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DRAGON DELIGHT—2. BIG TWO+2.5L3. MASTER OF LUCK+2.75L4. HANG'S CHOICE+3L5. HAPPIHOOD+4.25L6. MIGHTY STAR+6.75L7. RATTAN WORLD+9L8. YEE CHEONG WARRIOR+9.25L9. PRESTIGE MOOCHI+10.25L10. DRAGON KINGDOM+11.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BIG TWO (17.7%) finished 2nd — the winner DRAGON DELIGHT was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 BIG TWO 17.7% 5.65 2
2 11 EAGLE RUN 15.1% 6.63 11
3 1 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR 14.4% 6.93 8
4 6 DRAGON DELIGHT 11.8% 8.50 1
5 2 MASTER OF LUCK 10.4% 9.58 3
6 10 MIGHTY STAR 9.5% 10.54 6
7 4 RATTAN WORLD 7.5% 13.39 7
8 9 HAPPIHOOD 4.1% 24.60 5
9 8 DRAGON KINGDOM 3.5% 28.72 10
10 12 HANG'S CHOICE 2.7% 36.87 4
11 7 PRESTIGE MOOCHI 1.9% 53.36 9
12 3 V LOVE YOU 1.5% 67.19 12
BIG TWOEAGLE RUNYEE CHEONG WARRIORDRAGON DELIGHT — wonMASTER OF LUCKMIGHTY STARRATTAN WORLDHAPPIHOODDRAGON KINGDOMHANG'S CHOICEPRESTIGE MOOCHIV LOVE YOU

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 65.5

PLACE

2 38

5 11

6 21.5

QUINELLA

5,6 83.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 63.5

2,6 116

5,6 35.5

FORECAST

6,5 217

TIERCE

6,5,2 1,523

TRIO

2,5,6 273

FIRST 4

2,5,6,12 2,044

QUARTET

6,5,2,12 28,062

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,9,10/2,5,6 7,236

2ND DOUBLE

5/5 27

5/6 344