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Happy Valley · 2024-05-01 · 11:42

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD TO YIELDING 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-01 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. DRAGON DELIGHT, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by D A Hayes, won by 2-1/2, with BIG TWO second and MASTER OF LUCK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite BIG TWO finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.41.62
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 DRAGON DELIGHT Closed strongly B/TT 1.41.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · D A Hayes 7 6.5 2-1/2
2 5 BIG TWO Closed strongly SR/XB/TT H Bowman · D J Whyte 4 2.8 2-1/2
3 2 MASTER OF LUCK Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · M Newnham 10 13.0 2-3/4
4 12 HANG'S CHOICE B/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 2 40.0 3
5 9 HAPPIHOOD Closed strongly CP/TT L Hewitson · W K Mo 3 49.0 4-1/4
6 10 MIGHTY STAR Closed strongly B K Teetan · C W Chang 9 14.0 6-3/4
7 4 RATTAN WORLD Closed strongly B-/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 11 27.0 9
8 1 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/XB Z Purton · D J Hall 12 12.0 9-1/4
9 7 PRESTIGE MOOCHI B-/TT B Thompson · C H Yip 5 26.0 10-1/4
10 8 DRAGON KINGDOM Led early M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 1 24.0 11-1/4
11 11 EAGLE RUN TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 3.3 14-1/2
12 3 V LOVE YOU B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 8 76.0 31

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DRAGON DELIGHT2. BIG TWO+2.5L3. MASTER OF LUCK+2.75L4. HANG'S CHOICE+3L5. HAPPIHOOD+4.25L6. MIGHTY STAR+6.75L7. RATTAN WORLD+9L8. YEE CHEONG WARRIOR+9.25L9. PRESTIGE MOOCHI+10.25L10. DRAGON KINGDOM+11.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BIG TWO (17.7%) finished 2nd — the winner DRAGON DELIGHT was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 BIG TWO 17.7% 5.65 2
2 11 EAGLE RUN 15.1% 6.63 11
3 1 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR 14.4% 6.93 8
4 6 DRAGON DELIGHT 11.8% 8.50 1
5 2 MASTER OF LUCK 10.4% 9.58 3
6 10 MIGHTY STAR 9.5% 10.54 6
7 4 RATTAN WORLD 7.5% 13.39 7
8 9 HAPPIHOOD 4.1% 24.60 5
9 8 DRAGON KINGDOM 3.5% 28.72 10
10 12 HANG'S CHOICE 2.7% 36.87 4
11 7 PRESTIGE MOOCHI 1.9% 53.36 9
12 3 V LOVE YOU 1.5% 67.19 12
BIG TWOEAGLE RUNYEE CHEONG WARRIORDRAGON DELIGHT — wonMASTER OF LUCKMIGHTY STARRATTAN WORLDHAPPIHOODDRAGON KINGDOMHANG'S CHOICEPRESTIGE MOOCHIV LOVE YOU

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 65.5

PLACE

2 38

5 11

6 21.5

QUINELLA

5,6 83.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 63.5

2,6 116

5,6 35.5

FORECAST

6,5 217

TIERCE

6,5,2 1,523

TRIO

2,5,6 273

FIRST 4

2,5,6,12 2,044

QUARTET

6,5,2,12 28,062

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,9,10/2,5,6 7,236

2ND DOUBLE

5/5 27

5/6 344