Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2024-05-01 · 14:19

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD TO YIELDING 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-01 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. YELLOWFIN, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with ROMANTIC LAOS second and GALAXY WITNESS third. The winner led throughout. The 2.9 favourite SIMPLY MAVERICK finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.40.33
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 YELLOWFIN Wire to wire XB 1.40.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K W Lui 4 4.4 1/2
2 10 ROMANTIC LAOS Closed strongly TT K C Leung · W K Mo 1 14.0 1/2
3 1 GALAXY WITNESS Closed strongly TT1 H Bowman · C Fownes 3 6.8 4
4 6 IVY LEAGUE Closed strongly SR/XB/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte 10 20.0 4-3/4
5 11 CHARITY BINGO Closed strongly Y L Chung · C S Shum 11 15.0 5
6 7 GLORIOUS JOURNEY TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 7.3 6-1/4
7 2 WINNING DRAGON B/H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 8 29.0 6-3/4
8 5 FALLON B/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz 9 22.0 7-3/4
9 9 RED MAJESTY B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 5 13.0 8-1/4
10 12 ONLY U CP/TT B Thompson · T P Yung 2 75.0 19-3/4
11 4 SIMPLY MAVERICK Z Purton · P F Yiu 7 2.9 26-1/4
12 8 SUMMIT IMPACT CP A Atzeni · J Richards 12 200.0 27

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. YELLOWFIN2. ROMANTIC LAOS+0.5L3. GALAXY WITNESS+4L4. IVY LEAGUE+4.75L5. CHARITY BINGO+5L6. GLORIOUS JOURNEY+6.25L7. WINNING DRAGON+6.75L8. FALLON+7.75L9. RED MAJESTY+8.25L10. ONLY U+19.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SIMPLY MAVERICK (21.6%) finished 11th — the winner YELLOWFIN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 SIMPLY MAVERICK 21.6% 4.63 11
2 3 YELLOWFIN 15.9% 6.29 1
3 1 GALAXY WITNESS 14.0% 7.12 3
4 9 RED MAJESTY 9.2% 10.81 9
5 6 IVY LEAGUE 6.5% 15.36 4
6 2 WINNING DRAGON 6.5% 15.39 7
7 7 GLORIOUS JOURNEY 6.1% 16.27 6
8 12 ONLY U 5.9% 16.87 10
9 11 CHARITY BINGO 5.3% 19.03 5
10 10 ROMANTIC LAOS 5.2% 19.28 2
11 5 FALLON 3.2% 31.73 8
12 8 SUMMIT IMPACT 0.5% 193.09 12
SIMPLY MAVERICKYELLOWFIN — wonGALAXY WITNESSRED MAJESTYIVY LEAGUEWINNING DRAGONGLORIOUS JOURNEYONLY UCHARITY BINGOROMANTIC LAOSFALLONSUMMIT IMPACT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 44

PLACE

1 21.5

3 18.5

10 33.5

QUINELLA

3,10 282.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 63.5

1,10 140.5

3,10 96.5

FORECAST

3,10 575

TIERCE

3,10,1 3,512

TRIO

1,3,10 737

FIRST 4

1,3,6,10 2,659

QUARTET

3,10,1,6 39,942

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

6/3 190

6/10 175.5