Happy Valley · 2024-05-01 · 14:19
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-01 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. YELLOWFIN, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with ROMANTIC LAOS second and GALAXY WITNESS third. The winner led throughout. The 2.9 favourite SIMPLY MAVERICK finished 11th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | YELLOWFIN Wire to wire XB 1.40.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 4 | 4.4 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 10 | ROMANTIC LAOS Closed strongly TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 1 | 14.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | GALAXY WITNESS Closed strongly TT1 H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 3 | 6.8 | 4 |
| 4 | 6 | IVY LEAGUE Closed strongly SR/XB/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 10 | 20.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 5 | 11 | CHARITY BINGO Closed strongly Y L Chung · C S Shum | Y L Chung | C S Shum | 11 | 15.0 | 5 |
| 6 | 7 | GLORIOUS JOURNEY TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 6 | 7.3 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | WINNING DRAGON B/H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 8 | 29.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | FALLON B/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 9 | 22.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | RED MAJESTY B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 5 | 13.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 10 | 12 | ONLY U CP/TT B Thompson · T P Yung | B Thompson | T P Yung | 2 | 75.0 | 19-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | SIMPLY MAVERICK Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 7 | 2.9 | 26-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | SUMMIT IMPACT CP A Atzeni · J Richards | A Atzeni | J Richards | 12 | 200.0 | 27 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SIMPLY MAVERICK | 21.6% | 4.63 | 11 |
| 2 | 3 | YELLOWFIN | 15.9% | 6.29 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | GALAXY WITNESS | 14.0% | 7.12 | 3 |
| 4 | 9 | RED MAJESTY | 9.2% | 10.81 | 9 |
| 5 | 6 | IVY LEAGUE | 6.5% | 15.36 | 4 |
| 6 | 2 | WINNING DRAGON | 6.5% | 15.39 | 7 |
| 7 | 7 | GLORIOUS JOURNEY | 6.1% | 16.27 | 6 |
| 8 | 12 | ONLY U | 5.9% | 16.87 | 10 |
| 9 | 11 | CHARITY BINGO | 5.3% | 19.03 | 5 |
| 10 | 10 | ROMANTIC LAOS | 5.2% | 19.28 | 2 |
| 11 | 5 | FALLON | 3.2% | 31.73 | 8 |
| 12 | 8 | SUMMIT IMPACT | 0.5% | 193.09 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 44
PLACE
1 21.5
3 18.5
10 33.5
QUINELLA
3,10 282.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 63.5
1,10 140.5
3,10 96.5
FORECAST
3,10 575
TIERCE
3,10,1 3,512
TRIO
1,3,10 737
FIRST 4
1,3,6,10 2,659
QUARTET
3,10,1,6 39,942
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
6/3 190
6/10 175.5