Happy Valley · 2024-05-01 · 12:12
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. MEGA BONUS, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with EMBRACES second and SPEEDY CHARIOT third. The 3.8 favourite DOUBLE BINGO finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | MEGA BONUS V 1.10.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 8 | 12.0 | N |
| 2 | 4 | EMBRACES TT1 C L Chau · J Richards | C L Chau | J Richards | 5 | 10.0 | N |
| 3 | 11 | SPEEDY CHARIOT B/TT A Atzeni · D J Whyte | A Atzeni | D J Whyte | 1 | 5.4 | 1 |
| 4 | 10 | KOWLOON EAST STAR H/SR/TT H Bentley · K L Man | H Bentley | K L Man | 10 | 31.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | FLYING WROTE H1/TT1 Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 2 | 8.3 | 2 |
| 6 | 8 | HOSS XB/B2/TT K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 11 | 20.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 9 | SUPER EAGLE TT L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 6 | 12.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 3 | DOUBLE BINGO L Ferraris · Y S Tsui | L Ferraris | Y S Tsui | 4 | 3.8 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | SUPER SIXTY TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 3 | 5.1 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | COUNTRY DANCER PC A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 12 | 12.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | THE AZURE K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 7 | 37.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | GOLDEN TITLE TT K De Melo · C S Shum | K De Melo | C S Shum | 9 | 102.0 | 8-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SUPER EAGLE | 13.7% | 7.31 | 7 |
| 2 | 3 | DOUBLE BINGO | 13.5% | 7.41 | 8 |
| 3 | 5 | FLYING WROTE | 11.3% | 8.84 | 5 |
| 4 | 12 | COUNTRY DANCER | 10.5% | 9.54 | 10 |
| 5 | 4 | EMBRACES | 9.9% | 10.05 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | THE AZURE | 8.7% | 11.48 | 11 |
| 7 | 8 | HOSS | 8.6% | 11.60 | 6 |
| 8 | 11 | SPEEDY CHARIOT | 8.4% | 11.94 | 3 |
| 9 | 10 | KOWLOON EAST STAR | 5.9% | 16.82 | 4 |
| 10 | 1 | MEGA BONUS | 4.7% | 21.44 | 1 |
| 11 | 6 | SUPER SIXTY | 3.7% | 27.26 | 9 |
| 12 | 2 | GOLDEN TITLE | 1.1% | 90.90 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 125
PLACE
1 29
4 32.5
11 18
QUINELLA
1,4 430
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 135
1,11 115
4,11 96.5
FORECAST
1,4 736
TIERCE
1,4,11 4,978
TRIO
1,4,11 679
FIRST 4
1,4,10,11 8,214
QUARTET
1,4,11,10 152,401
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
6/1 800.5
6/4 107