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Happy Valley · 2024-05-01 · 11:12

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-01 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. CORDYCEPS ONE, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by C H Yip, won by 1-3/4, with BRAVE WITNESS second and FRUITY WARRIOR third. The winner led throughout. The 4.4 favourite SETANTA finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.40.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 CORDYCEPS ONE Wire to wire 1.40.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · C H Yip 11 5.4 1-3/4
2 9 BRAVE WITNESS TT K Teetan · C S Shum 6 4.6 1-3/4
3 10 FRUITY WARRIOR B-/TT L Hewitson · C Fownes 1 6.5 2-1/2
4 8 FIGHTING MAN Closed strongly XB/TT- C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 45.0 3-1/4
5 6 SETANTA Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 3 4.4 3-3/4
6 3 VOLCANIC SPARK Closed strongly B H Bentley · P F Yiu 7 6.0 5-3/4
7 12 CHEONG FAT Closed strongly PC-/H/P1 M L Yeung · C W Chang 4 12.0 6-1/2
8 1 D STAR Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 17.0 7-1/2
9 7 ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE Closed strongly B-/CP2/TT- C L Chau · D A Hayes 9 37.0 7-3/4
10 11 DRAGON PRIDE B Thompson · T P Yung 10 50.0 9-1/2
11 4 NOT A FEW CP/XB A Atzeni · D J Whyte 2 39.0 9-3/4
12 2 EXCEL WONGCHOY TT A Badel · P C Ng 8 30.0 39-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CORDYCEPS ONE2. BRAVE WITNESS+1.75L3. FRUITY WARRIOR+2.5L4. FIGHTING MAN+3.25L5. SETANTA+3.75L6. VOLCANIC SPARK+5.75L7. CHEONG FAT+6.5L8. D STAR+7.5L9. ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE+7.75L10. DRAGON PRIDE+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SETANTA (22.9%) finished 5th — the winner CORDYCEPS ONE was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 SETANTA 22.9% 4.37 5
2 3 VOLCANIC SPARK 13.0% 7.70 6
3 12 CHEONG FAT 9.8% 10.24 7
4 2 EXCEL WONGCHOY 9.6% 10.44 12
5 9 BRAVE WITNESS 9.4% 10.64 2
6 10 FRUITY WARRIOR 9.3% 10.80 3
7 1 D STAR 6.7% 14.86 8
8 5 CORDYCEPS ONE 6.5% 15.47 1
9 7 ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE 4.9% 20.29 9
10 4 NOT A FEW 3.3% 30.65 11
11 11 DRAGON PRIDE 3.0% 33.66 10
12 8 FIGHTING MAN 1.8% 55.87 4
SETANTAVOLCANIC SPARKCHEONG FATEXCEL WONGCHOYBRAVE WITNESSFRUITY WARRIORD STARCORDYCEPS ONE — wonABSOLUTE SUNSHINENOT A FEWDRAGON PRIDEFIGHTING MAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 54.5

PLACE

5 18.5

9 19.5

10 20

QUINELLA

5,9 138.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,9 54

5,10 57

9,10 56.5

FORECAST

5,9 250

TIERCE

5,9,10 1,015

TRIO

5,9,10 216

FIRST 4

5,8,9,10 3,650

QUARTET

5,9,10,8 41,445

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

4/5 203.5

4/9 75.5