Happy Valley · 2024-05-15 · 11:11
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-15 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. BIG RED, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by C W Chang, won by HD, with I CAN second and SUPER BABY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.3 favourite SNOWALOT finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | BIG RED Closed strongly 1.40.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · C W Chang | E C W Wong | C W Chang | 9 | 5.6 | HD |
| 2 | 1 | I CAN Closed strongly H/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 8 | 7.0 | HD |
| 3 | 6 | SUPER BABY Led early B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 5 | 22.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | FIGHTING MAN XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 1 | 7.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | STRONGEST BOY B/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 3 | 5.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | SNOWALOT B K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 2 | 5.3 | 4 |
| 7 | 3 | TRADITION Closed strongly M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 6 | 63.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 10 | FRUITY WARRIOR Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · C Fownes | L Hewitson | C Fownes | 10 | 7.2 | 8-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | FORTUNE COOKIES Closed strongly B/TT B Thompson · J Richards | B Thompson | J Richards | 4 | 78.0 | 16 |
| 10 | 8 | FOREMOST TEDDY B/TT K De Melo · C S Shum | K De Melo | C S Shum | 7 | 5.5 | 54-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | STRONGEST BOY | 23.5% | 4.25 | 5 |
| 2 | 2 | SNOWALOT | 22.0% | 4.54 | 6 |
| 3 | 1 | I CAN | 13.9% | 7.18 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | BIG RED | 12.0% | 8.32 | 1 |
| 5 | 9 | FIGHTING MAN | 9.5% | 10.51 | 4 |
| 6 | 10 | FRUITY WARRIOR | 8.0% | 12.48 | 8 |
| 7 | 8 | FOREMOST TEDDY | 7.3% | 13.77 | 10 |
| 8 | 6 | SUPER BABY | 2.2% | 44.89 | 3 |
| 9 | 3 | TRADITION | 1.0% | 95.71 | 7 |
| 10 | 7 | FORTUNE COOKIES | 0.4% | 235.80 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 56
PLACE
1 24
4 19
6 58.5
QUINELLA
1,4 190.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 68
1,6 307
4,6 280.5
FORECAST
4,1 369
TIERCE
4,1,6 8,995
TRIO
1,4,6 2,062
FIRST 4
1,4,6,9 2,082
QUARTET
4,1,6,9 42,927
All pools (1 more)
1ST DOUBLE
8/1 141.5
8/4 645.5