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Happy Valley · 2024-05-15 · 12:42

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 11 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SWEET DIAMOND, ridden by A Badel and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1, with COSMO NAVIGATOR second and GIMME FIVE third. The 2.6 favourite GLORY CLOUD finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.10.37
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 SWEET DIAMOND TT 1.10.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · P F Yiu 6 7.2 1
2 6 COSMO NAVIGATOR B A Hamelin · C W Chang 8 20.0 1
3 7 GIMME FIVE CP- K Teetan · F C Lor 1 6.5 1-1/4
4 3 CURRAHEE H/TT L Ferraris · W K Mo 5 15.0 3
5 2 SIGHT HERO BO-/B2/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 2 9.8 3
6 8 SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 10 10.0 4
7 4 GLORY CLOUD TT H Bowman · C Fownes 7 2.6 5-3/4
8 5 WINNING HEART V/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz 3 6.5 6-1/2
9 1 SUNNY DARLING PC/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 9 19.0 8-1/4
10 10 MANYTHANKS FOREVER CP-/B1/TT B Thompson · J Richards 11 90.0 10
11 9 BRAVO WARRIOR TT M L Yeung · W Y So 4 87.0 14
12 MIRACLES M Chadwick · K L Man

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SWEET DIAMOND2. COSMO NAVIGATOR+1L3. GIMME FIVE+1.25L4. CURRAHEE+3L5. SIGHT HERO+3L6. SUPER AXIOM+4L7. GLORY CLOUD+5.75L8. WINNING HEART+6.5L9. SUNNY DARLING+8.25L10. MANYTHANKS FOREVER+10L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick WINNING HEART (25.4%) finished 8th — the winner SWEET DIAMOND was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 WINNING HEART 25.4% 3.94 8
2 11 SWEET DIAMOND 17.8% 5.61 1
3 4 GLORY CLOUD 13.9% 7.21 7
4 7 GIMME FIVE 12.0% 8.32 3
5 8 SUPER AXIOM 9.7% 10.28 6
6 2 SIGHT HERO 8.2% 12.17 5
7 3 CURRAHEE 4.5% 22.42 4
8 1 SUNNY DARLING 3.1% 31.76 9
9 6 COSMO NAVIGATOR 2.3% 43.82 2
10 9 BRAVO WARRIOR 1.6% 60.69 11
11 10 MANYTHANKS FOREVER 1.4% 70.68 10
WINNING HEARTSWEET DIAMOND — wonGLORY CLOUDGIMME FIVESUPER AXIOMSIGHT HEROCURRAHEESUNNY DARLINGCOSMO NAVIGATORBRAVO WARRIORMANYTHANKS FOREVER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 72.5

PLACE

6 48.5

7 20.5

11 23.5

QUINELLA

6,11 687.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 222

6,11 191.5

7,11 75

FORECAST

11,6 1,197

TIERCE

11,6,7 8,489

TRIO

6,7,11 1,159

FIRST 4

3,6,7,11 2,873

QUARTET

11,6,7,3 67,487

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

7/3/6 962

7/3/11 1,472

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,9/6,7,11 376,120

4TH DOUBLE

3/6 187.5

3/11 498.5