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Happy Valley · 2024-05-15 · 11:42

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course C 9 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-15 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. FLAMINGO TRILLION, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with WINNING DRAGON second and AWESOME FLUKE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite NOBLE PURSUIT finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.49.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 FLAMINGO TRILLION Closed strongly 1.49.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 3 3.9 3/4
2 1 WINNING DRAGON Closed strongly B/H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 4 17.0 3/4
3 5 AWESOME FLUKE Closed strongly P1/TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu 1 5.9 3
4 6 QUANTUM PATCH Closed strongly TT K Teetan · P C Ng 7 6.2 3-3/4
5 9 INTREPID WINNER Closed strongly B K De Melo · C W Chang 2 12.0 4-3/4
6 3 NOBLE PURSUIT TT H Bowman · C Fownes 6 3.2 5-1/4
7 8 DEVILDOM Led early B2/TT- L Hewitson · T P Yung 8 40.0 7-3/4
8 4 BRAVEHEARTS B1/TT A Badel · J Richards 9 35.0 11
9 2 GALLANT WAKING C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 7.9 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLAMINGO TRILLION2. WINNING DRAGON+0.75L3. AWESOME FLUKE+3L4. QUANTUM PATCH+3.75L5. INTREPID WINNER+4.75L6. NOBLE PURSUIT+5.25L7. DEVILDOM+7.75L8. BRAVEHEARTS+11L9. GALLANT WAKING+12.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick FLAMINGO TRILLION (21.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 FLAMINGO TRILLION 21.0% 4.75 1
2 3 NOBLE PURSUIT 20.8% 4.80 6
3 5 AWESOME FLUKE 12.4% 8.05 3
4 6 QUANTUM PATCH 11.8% 8.47 4
5 2 GALLANT WAKING 10.9% 9.18 9
6 9 INTREPID WINNER 9.4% 10.69 5
7 1 WINNING DRAGON 5.8% 17.39 2
8 8 DEVILDOM 4.5% 22.47 7
9 4 BRAVEHEARTS 3.5% 28.92 8
FLAMINGO TRILLION — wonNOBLE PURSUITAWESOME FLUKEQUANTUM PATCHGALLANT WAKINGINTREPID WINNERWINNING DRAGONDEVILDOMBRAVEHEARTS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 39

PLACE

1 49

5 21

7 13.5

QUINELLA

1,7 334.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 156

1,7 100

5,7 47

FORECAST

7,1 593

TIERCE

7,1,5 2,706

TRIO

1,5,7 544

FIRST 4

1,5,6,7 726

QUARTET

7,1,5,6 13,112

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,6/1,5,7 132,705

2ND DOUBLE

4/1 155.5

4/7 209