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Happy Valley · 2024-05-15 · 14:18

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. PRIME MORTAR, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 2, with SPICY GOLD second and LAPRAS third. Victory came as the 3.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 PRIME MORTAR XB-/V/TT 1.10.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 3.8 2
2 9 SPICY GOLD H/TT A Badel · M Newnham 9 6.0 2
3 8 LAPRAS TT1 K Teetan · W K Mo 1 35.0 3
4 10 SUPER EAGLE TT M Chadwick · W Y So 3 8.4 3-3/4
5 6 FAIRY HORSE TT A Atzeni · C Fownes 10 48.0 4-1/4
6 7 HERCULES B/TT C L Chau · C H Yip 4 16.0 4-1/4
7 12 HARMONY N HOME M F Poon · C S Shum 2 9.5 5
8 5 MISTER FOX K De Melo · D J Hall 8 131.0 5-1/4
9 3 SIGHT SUPREME PC Z Purton · J Size 12 7.3 5-3/4
10 11 HAPPY FEELING B/TT B Thompson · J Richards 6 26.0 6-1/4
11 1 E UNIVERSE TT L Hewitson · K L Man 7 6.8 8-1/2
12 2 DOUBLE BINGO L Ferraris · Y S Tsui 5 8.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRIME MORTAR2. SPICY GOLD+2L3. LAPRAS+3L4. SUPER EAGLE+3.75L5. FAIRY HORSE+4.25L6. HERCULES+4.25L7. HARMONY N HOME+5L8. MISTER FOX+5.25L9. SIGHT SUPREME+5.75L10. HAPPY FEELING+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SUPER EAGLE (17.2%) finished 4th — the winner PRIME MORTAR was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 SUPER EAGLE 17.2% 5.81 4
2 3 SIGHT SUPREME 15.5% 6.46 9
3 1 E UNIVERSE 15.5% 6.47 11
4 9 SPICY GOLD 10.5% 9.51 2
5 12 HARMONY N HOME 8.8% 11.42 7
6 7 HERCULES 8.4% 11.91 6
7 2 DOUBLE BINGO 7.8% 12.86 12
8 4 PRIME MORTAR 7.0% 14.31 1
9 11 HAPPY FEELING 5.7% 17.49 10
10 8 LAPRAS 1.7% 60.46 3
11 6 FAIRY HORSE 1.5% 66.45 5
12 5 MISTER FOX 0.6% 181.13 8
SUPER EAGLESIGHT SUPREMEE UNIVERSESPICY GOLDHARMONY N HOMEHERCULESDOUBLE BINGOPRIME MORTAR — wonHAPPY FEELINGLAPRASFAIRY HORSEMISTER FOX

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 38.5

PLACE

4 17.5

8 97

9 24.5

QUINELLA

4,9 124.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 272.5

4,9 54

8,9 376.5

FORECAST

4,9 209

TIERCE

4,9,8 5,585

TRIO

4,8,9 1,505

FIRST 4

4,8,9,10 3,272

QUARTET

4,9,8,10 44,871

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

7/4 363.5

7/9 123