Happy Valley · 2024-05-15 · 14:18
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. PRIME MORTAR, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 2, with SPICY GOLD second and LAPRAS third. Victory came as the 3.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | PRIME MORTAR XB-/V/TT 1.10.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 11 | 3.8 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | SPICY GOLD H/TT A Badel · M Newnham | A Badel | M Newnham | 9 | 6.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 8 | LAPRAS TT1 K Teetan · W K Mo | K Teetan | W K Mo | 1 | 35.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | SUPER EAGLE TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 3 | 8.4 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 6 | FAIRY HORSE TT A Atzeni · C Fownes | A Atzeni | C Fownes | 10 | 48.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | HERCULES B/TT C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 4 | 16.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | HARMONY N HOME M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 2 | 9.5 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 | MISTER FOX K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 8 | 131.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | SIGHT SUPREME PC Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 12 | 7.3 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | HAPPY FEELING B/TT B Thompson · J Richards | B Thompson | J Richards | 6 | 26.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 1 | E UNIVERSE TT L Hewitson · K L Man | L Hewitson | K L Man | 7 | 6.8 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | DOUBLE BINGO L Ferraris · Y S Tsui | L Ferraris | Y S Tsui | 5 | 8.0 | 10 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | SUPER EAGLE | 17.2% | 5.81 | 4 |
| 2 | 3 | SIGHT SUPREME | 15.5% | 6.46 | 9 |
| 3 | 1 | E UNIVERSE | 15.5% | 6.47 | 11 |
| 4 | 9 | SPICY GOLD | 10.5% | 9.51 | 2 |
| 5 | 12 | HARMONY N HOME | 8.8% | 11.42 | 7 |
| 6 | 7 | HERCULES | 8.4% | 11.91 | 6 |
| 7 | 2 | DOUBLE BINGO | 7.8% | 12.86 | 12 |
| 8 | 4 | PRIME MORTAR | 7.0% | 14.31 | 1 |
| 9 | 11 | HAPPY FEELING | 5.7% | 17.49 | 10 |
| 10 | 8 | LAPRAS | 1.7% | 60.46 | 3 |
| 11 | 6 | FAIRY HORSE | 1.5% | 66.45 | 5 |
| 12 | 5 | MISTER FOX | 0.6% | 181.13 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 38.5
PLACE
4 17.5
8 97
9 24.5
QUINELLA
4,9 124.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 272.5
4,9 54
8,9 376.5
FORECAST
4,9 209
TIERCE
4,9,8 5,585
TRIO
4,8,9 1,505
FIRST 4
4,8,9,10 3,272
QUARTET
4,9,8,10 44,871
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
7/4 363.5
7/9 123