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Happy Valley · 2024-05-15 · 10:41

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-15 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TIMESTORM, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by 3/4, with SONIC BOOM second and ISLAND SURPRISE third. The 3.7 favourite VIVA A LA finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.10.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 TIMESTORM V 1.10.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall 8 12.0 3/4
2 4 SONIC BOOM B-/XB-/TT K Teetan · W K Mo 5 10.0 3/4
3 9 ISLAND SURPRISE PC/TT A Hamelin · P C Ng 4 10.0 1-3/4
4 5 WIND SPEEDER B2 L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 11 32.0 2
5 7 VIVA A LA B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 2 3.7 2-1/4
6 6 YEABOI TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 3 14.0 3
7 11 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR M L Yeung · T P Yung 6 31.0 3
8 10 AUGUST MOON BO/TT Z Purton · J Richards 1 4.0 3-1/2
9 1 CHEER FOR SOUTH SR E C W Wong · F C Lor 9 4.8 3-3/4
10 2 NOBLE ONE B C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 21.0 3-3/4
11 3 PODIUM B/TT K H Chan · C W Chang 7 71.0 4-3/4
12 12 EASY TWO H/TT Y L Chung · K H Ting 12 40.0 5-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TIMESTORM2. SONIC BOOM+0.75L3. ISLAND SURPRISE+1.75L4. WIND SPEEDER+2L5. VIVA A LA+2.25L6. YEABOI+3L7. CIRCUIT SPLENDOR+3L8. AUGUST MOON+3.5L9. CHEER FOR SOUTH+3.75L10. NOBLE ONE+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick AUGUST MOON (19.7%) finished 8th — the winner TIMESTORM was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 AUGUST MOON 19.7% 5.07 8
2 7 VIVA A LA 17.8% 5.61 5
3 4 SONIC BOOM 10.9% 9.20 2
4 8 TIMESTORM 10.1% 9.86 1
5 1 CHEER FOR SOUTH 10.1% 9.90 9
6 2 NOBLE ONE 7.3% 13.72 10
7 11 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR 5.3% 18.84 7
8 5 WIND SPEEDER 4.9% 20.23 4
9 12 EASY TWO 4.9% 20.24 12
10 6 YEABOI 4.3% 23.21 6
11 9 ISLAND SURPRISE 3.2% 31.65 3
12 3 PODIUM 1.4% 72.13 11
AUGUST MOONVIVA A LASONIC BOOMTIMESTORM — wonCHEER FOR SOUTHNOBLE ONECIRCUIT SPLENDORWIND SPEEDEREASY TWOYEABOIISLAND SURPRISEPODIUM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 126

PLACE

4 31.5

8 30.5

9 31

QUINELLA

4,8 589

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 154

4,9 151

8,9 165.5

FORECAST

8,4 1,338

TIERCE

8,4,9 9,937

TRIO

4,8,9 1,629

FIRST 4

4,5,8,9 8,685

QUARTET

8,4,9,5 207,329