Happy Valley · 2024-05-15 · 12:11
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-15 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. TO INFINITY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by 5-1/2, with HAPPIHOOD second and KEEN UNITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.9 favourite BIG TWO finished 12th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | TO INFINITY Closed strongly B/TT 1.40.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 3 | 5.2 | 5-1/2 |
| 2 | 9 | HAPPIHOOD Closed strongly CP-/TT M L Yeung · W K Mo | M L Yeung | W K Mo | 12 | 48.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | KEEN UNITY Closed strongly V/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 1 | 8.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | RELIABLE PROFIT B/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum | L Hewitson | C S Shum | 8 | 9.8 | 7 |
| 5 | 11 | HANG'S CHOICE Closed strongly B/TT B Thompson · W Y So | B Thompson | W Y So | 5 | 35.0 | 7 |
| 6 | 5 | YEE CHEONG WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/XB H Bentley · D J Hall | H Bentley | D J Hall | 9 | 17.0 | 7 |
| 7 | 4 | MASTER OF LUCK Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · M Newnham | B Avdulla | M Newnham | 6 | 5.6 | 7-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | DRAGON DELIGHT B/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes | E C W Wong | D A Hayes | 10 | 5.8 | 8-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | HAPPY HUNK Led early CP/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 2 | 35.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 10 | 12 | MISTER ARM Closed strongly H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 7 | 64.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | EAGLE RUN TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 11 | 11.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | BIG TWO SR/XB/TT H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 4 | 4.9 | 13-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | BIG TWO | 22.3% | 4.49 | 12 |
| 2 | 3 | TO INFINITY | 21.7% | 4.60 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | DRAGON DELIGHT | 15.8% | 6.34 | 8 |
| 4 | 4 | MASTER OF LUCK | 8.0% | 12.47 | 7 |
| 5 | 2 | RELIABLE PROFIT | 6.7% | 14.96 | 4 |
| 6 | 1 | KEEN UNITY | 6.6% | 15.25 | 3 |
| 7 | 10 | EAGLE RUN | 5.9% | 16.89 | 11 |
| 8 | 5 | YEE CHEONG WARRIOR | 4.8% | 21.02 | 6 |
| 9 | 8 | HAPPY HUNK | 3.5% | 28.25 | 9 |
| 10 | 11 | HANG'S CHOICE | 2.1% | 47.63 | 5 |
| 11 | 9 | HAPPIHOOD | 1.9% | 52.71 | 2 |
| 12 | 12 | MISTER ARM | 0.8% | 127.40 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 52
PLACE
1 29.5
3 18.5
9 114
QUINELLA
3,9 1,367
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 72
1,9 543
3,9 387
FORECAST
3,9 1,981
TIERCE
3,9,1 17,020
TRIO
1,3,9 3,373
FIRST 4
1,2,3,9 5,143
QUARTET
3,9,1,2 106,567
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
7/3 197
7/9 353.5