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Happy Valley · 2024-05-15 · 12:11

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-15 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. TO INFINITY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by 5-1/2, with HAPPIHOOD second and KEEN UNITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.9 favourite BIG TWO finished 12th.

Result

Official · 1.40.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 TO INFINITY Closed strongly B/TT 1.40.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards 3 5.2 5-1/2
2 9 HAPPIHOOD Closed strongly CP-/TT M L Yeung · W K Mo 12 48.0 5-1/2
3 1 KEEN UNITY Closed strongly V/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 1 8.0 6-1/4
4 2 RELIABLE PROFIT B/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 8 9.8 7
5 11 HANG'S CHOICE Closed strongly B/TT B Thompson · W Y So 5 35.0 7
6 5 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/XB H Bentley · D J Hall 9 17.0 7
7 4 MASTER OF LUCK Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · M Newnham 6 5.6 7-1/2
8 6 DRAGON DELIGHT B/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 10 5.8 8-1/2
9 8 HAPPY HUNK Led early CP/TT K C Leung · K L Man 2 35.0 9-3/4
10 12 MISTER ARM Closed strongly H T Mo · Y S Tsui 7 64.0 11-3/4
11 10 EAGLE RUN TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 11.0 12-3/4
12 7 BIG TWO SR/XB/TT H Bowman · D J Whyte 4 4.9 13-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TO INFINITY2. HAPPIHOOD+5.5L3. KEEN UNITY+6.25L4. RELIABLE PROFIT+7L5. HANG'S CHOICE+7L6. YEE CHEONG WARRIOR+7L7. MASTER OF LUCK+7.5L8. DRAGON DELIGHT+8.5L9. HAPPY HUNK+9.75L10. MISTER ARM+11.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BIG TWO (22.3%) finished 12th — the winner TO INFINITY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 BIG TWO 22.3% 4.49 12
2 3 TO INFINITY 21.7% 4.60 1
3 6 DRAGON DELIGHT 15.8% 6.34 8
4 4 MASTER OF LUCK 8.0% 12.47 7
5 2 RELIABLE PROFIT 6.7% 14.96 4
6 1 KEEN UNITY 6.6% 15.25 3
7 10 EAGLE RUN 5.9% 16.89 11
8 5 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR 4.8% 21.02 6
9 8 HAPPY HUNK 3.5% 28.25 9
10 11 HANG'S CHOICE 2.1% 47.63 5
11 9 HAPPIHOOD 1.9% 52.71 2
12 12 MISTER ARM 0.8% 127.40 10
BIG TWOTO INFINITY — wonDRAGON DELIGHTMASTER OF LUCKRELIABLE PROFITKEEN UNITYEAGLE RUNYEE CHEONG WARRIORHAPPY HUNKHANG'S CHOICEHAPPIHOODMISTER ARM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 52

PLACE

1 29.5

3 18.5

9 114

QUINELLA

3,9 1,367

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 72

1,9 543

3,9 387

FORECAST

3,9 1,981

TIERCE

3,9,1 17,020

TRIO

1,3,9 3,373

FIRST 4

1,2,3,9 5,143

QUARTET

3,9,1,2 106,567

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

7/3 197

7/9 353.5