Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2024-05-22 · 18:02

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-22 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SATIRICAL FAN, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with ATOMIC BEAUTY second and COMET SPLENDIDO third. The winner led throughout. The 2.8 favourite ATOMIC BEAUTY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.40.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SATIRICAL FAN Wire to wire CP1/TT 1.40.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · C S Shum 7 27.0 SH
2 5 ATOMIC BEAUTY Closed strongly V/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 1 2.8 SH
3 3 COMET SPLENDIDO Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 5 6.4 1-3/4
4 2 FIGHTING MACHINE Closed strongly SR Z Purton · P C Ng 10 9.5 2-1/4
5 8 COURIER MAGIC Closed strongly B B Thompson · J Richards 8 8.9 2-1/2
6 11 AMAZING BOY Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · C W Chang 11 29.0 3-3/4
7 10 PALACE PAL V H Bentley · D J Hall 2 8.9 4
8 9 HARRY'S HERO H M F Poon · P F Yiu 3 10.0 4-1/2
9 4 BEER PALACE B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 9 13.0 7
10 12 DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly L Hewitson · T P Yung 12 96.0 7-3/4
11 7 SUPER TAICHI H/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 53.0 8-1/4
12 6 MASTER TORNADO PC/TT K Teetan · W Y So 4 9.8 74

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SATIRICAL FAN2. ATOMIC BEAUTY+0.1L3. COMET SPLENDIDO+1.75L4. FIGHTING MACHINE+2.25L5. COURIER MAGIC+2.5L6. AMAZING BOY+3.75L7. PALACE PAL+4L8. HARRY'S HERO+4.5L9. BEER PALACE+7L10. DRAGON PRIDE+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick ATOMIC BEAUTY (21.3%) finished 2nd — the winner SATIRICAL FAN was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 ATOMIC BEAUTY 21.3% 4.69 2
2 10 PALACE PAL 15.1% 6.63 7
3 6 MASTER TORNADO 11.3% 8.83 12
4 9 HARRY'S HERO 10.8% 9.25 8
5 2 FIGHTING MACHINE 10.5% 9.55 4
6 3 COMET SPLENDIDO 9.0% 11.05 3
7 8 COURIER MAGIC 7.6% 13.20 5
8 11 AMAZING BOY 5.2% 19.24 6
9 4 BEER PALACE 3.6% 27.83 9
10 12 DRAGON PRIDE 2.4% 41.20 10
11 7 SUPER TAICHI 2.0% 49.81 11
12 1 SATIRICAL FAN 1.1% 88.79 1
ATOMIC BEAUTYPALACE PALMASTER TORNADOHARRY'S HEROFIGHTING MACHINECOMET SPLENDIDOCOURIER MAGICAMAZING BOYBEER PALACEDRAGON PRIDESUPER TAICHISATIRICAL FAN — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 275.5

PLACE

1 100

3 19

5 12

QUINELLA

1,5 593.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 322

1,5 224

3,5 36

FORECAST

1,5 1,186

TIERCE

1,5,3 6,297

TRIO

1,3,5 649

FIRST 4

1,2,3,5 1,532

QUARTET

1,5,3,2 51,045

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,10,12/1,3,5 60,405

2ND DOUBLE

10/1 396

10/5 14