Happy Valley · 2024-05-22 · 18:02
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-22 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LEAN MASTER, ridden by H Bentley and trained by C H Yip, won by 1/2, with SCOTCH TYCOON second and AMAZING ACE third. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | LEAN MASTER B/TT 1.10.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 1 | 1.9 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | SCOTCH TYCOON B/TT1 L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 4 | 10.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | AMAZING ACE B-/TT Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 5 | 25.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | FLYING WROTE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 3 | 9.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | SWEET SMILE H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 2 | 35.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | SKY PROPHET B-/TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 12 | 40.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | SPEEDY CHARIOT B/TT A Atzeni · D J Whyte | A Atzeni | D J Whyte | 7 | 9.8 | 4 |
| 8 | 1 | EXUBERANT B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 6 | 13.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 6 | ERNEST FEELING B/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 11 | 42.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 12 | SO AWESOME B/TT L Hewitson · K L Man | L Hewitson | K L Man | 10 | 15.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | EXCEL WONGCHOY B1/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng | C Y Ho | P C Ng | 9 | 8.4 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 2 | FLOOF TT1 H T Mo · K W Lui | H T Mo | K W Lui | 8 | 66.0 | 11 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | LEAN MASTER | 23.7% | 4.21 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | FLYING WROTE | 15.2% | 6.56 | 4 |
| 3 | 3 | AMAZING ACE | 13.9% | 7.18 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | EXUBERANT | 12.9% | 7.74 | 8 |
| 5 | 12 | SO AWESOME | 6.7% | 14.83 | 10 |
| 6 | 9 | SKY PROPHET | 5.9% | 17.08 | 6 |
| 7 | 11 | SPEEDY CHARIOT | 5.6% | 17.80 | 7 |
| 8 | 5 | SCOTCH TYCOON | 4.6% | 21.52 | 2 |
| 9 | 2 | FLOOF | 3.6% | 27.87 | 12 |
| 10 | 4 | EXCEL WONGCHOY | 2.8% | 36.11 | 11 |
| 11 | 6 | ERNEST FEELING | 2.7% | 37.72 | 9 |
| 12 | 8 | SWEET SMILE | 2.3% | 43.28 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 19.5
PLACE
3 60
5 26.5
10 10.1
QUINELLA
5,10 104
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 289.5
3,10 93.5
5,10 48.5
FORECAST
10,5 158
TIERCE
10,5,3 1,959
TRIO
3,5,10 696
FIRST 4
3,5,7,10 768
QUARTET
10,5,3,7 10,258
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
1/5 354
1/10 570.5