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Happy Valley · 2024-05-22 · 18:01

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-22 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. FOREVER GLORIOUS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with GOLD TACK second and KASA PAPA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.1 favourite PACKING WISHER finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.40.49
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 FOREVER GLORIOUS Closed strongly B-/V1/TT 1.40.49 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · K W Lui 5 6.0 SH
2 12 GOLD TACK Closed strongly B K De Melo · D J Hall 7 15.0 SH
3 3 KASA PAPA Closed strongly TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 8 7.4 HD
4 7 CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · F C Lor 12 16.0 1/2
5 11 THE KHAN H/SR A Atzeni · C Fownes 4 9.3 2-1/2
6 5 TO INFINITY Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · J Richards 6 8.8 5
7 9 FLYING PHANTOM H A Badel · J Size 2 18.0 5
8 8 PACKING WISHER TT C L Chau · C S Shum 3 5.1 5-3/4
9 10 YOUNG VICTORY Closed strongly B-/TT B Thompson · W Y So 11 63.0 8
10 2 MIDORI BURLY B/TT1 B Avdulla · P F Yiu 9 38.0 9-3/4
11 4 JUMBO FORTUNE Led early PC/XB Z Purton · P C Ng 1 5.1 15-3/4
12 1 CORDYCEPS ONE E C W Wong · C H Yip 10 12.0 19-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FOREVER GLORIOUS2. GOLD TACK+0.1L3. KASA PAPA+0.2L4. CAN'T GO WONG+0.5L5. THE KHAN+2.5L6. TO INFINITY+5L7. FLYING PHANTOM+5L8. PACKING WISHER+5.75L9. YOUNG VICTORY+8L10. MIDORI BURLY+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick JUMBO FORTUNE (19.6%) finished 11th — the winner FOREVER GLORIOUS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 JUMBO FORTUNE 19.6% 5.09 11
2 5 TO INFINITY 13.5% 7.39 6
3 6 FOREVER GLORIOUS 11.1% 9.04 1
4 8 PACKING WISHER 10.7% 9.34 8
5 3 KASA PAPA 10.4% 9.61 3
6 12 GOLD TACK 9.5% 10.57 2
7 7 CAN'T GO WONG 7.7% 12.92 4
8 11 THE KHAN 6.5% 15.48 5
9 1 CORDYCEPS ONE 4.8% 20.98 12
10 9 FLYING PHANTOM 3.0% 32.98 7
11 2 MIDORI BURLY 2.1% 46.84 10
12 10 YOUNG VICTORY 1.1% 93.28 9
JUMBO FORTUNETO INFINITYFOREVER GLORIOUS — wonPACKING WISHERKASA PAPAGOLD TACKCAN'T GO WONGTHE KHANCORDYCEPS ONEFLYING PHANTOMMIDORI BURLYYOUNG VICTORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 60

PLACE

3 28

6 20.5

12 44.5

QUINELLA

6,12 543.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 99

3,12 163

6,12 166

FORECAST

6,12 964

TIERCE

6,12,3 9,481

TRIO

3,6,12 1,490

FIRST 4

3,6,7,12 3,894

QUARTET

6,12,3,7 84,058

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

1/10/6 4,201

1/10/12 2,181

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,10/3,6,12 57,600

4TH DOUBLE

10/6 90

10/12 34.5