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Happy Valley · 2024-05-22 · 22:17

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 ROMANTIC LAOS Closed strongly TT 1.40.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · W K Mo 5 6.0 N
2 1 RED HARE KING Led early TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 12 4.6 N
3 3 IVY LEAGUE Closed strongly SR/XB/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte 8 16.0 N
4 4 SWEET BRIAR B-/V1/TT Z Purton · K W Lui 9 4.7 2-1/4
5 11 JUMBO LEGEND Closed strongly H/TT A Atzeni · C Fownes 10 11.0 2-3/4
6 7 SILVER UP B/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 2 7.2 2-3/4
7 2 GIDDY UP Closed strongly P1/TT H Bentley · J Richards 1 9.7 3-1/4
8 5 GLORIOUS JOURNEY Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 11 40.0 5
9 9 RED MAJESTY B/TT B Thompson · D A Hayes 6 20.0 5
10 10 ESCAPE ROUTE H K Teetan · J Size 7 7.3 7-3/4
11 8 WAH MAY WAI WAI H Y L Chung · A S Cruz 4 66.0 9
12 12 ORIENTAL TYCOON P M F Poon · P C Ng 3 95.0 10-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-22 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. ROMANTIC LAOS, ridden by K C Leung and trained by W K Mo, won by N, with RED HARE KING second and IVY LEAGUE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.6 favourite RED HARE KING finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ROMANTIC LAOS—2. RED HARE KING+0.05L3. IVY LEAGUE+0.05L4. SWEET BRIAR+2.25L5. JUMBO LEGEND+2.75L6. SILVER UP+2.75L7. GIDDY UP+3.25L8. GLORIOUS JOURNEY+5L9. RED MAJESTY+5L10. ESCAPE ROUTE+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SWEET BRIAR (18.8%) finished 4th — the winner ROMANTIC LAOS was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 SWEET BRIAR 18.8% 5.31 4
2 10 ESCAPE ROUTE 15.6% 6.42 10
3 1 RED HARE KING 13.7% 7.31 2
4 11 JUMBO LEGEND 11.2% 8.89 5
5 7 SILVER UP 8.9% 11.22 6
6 2 GIDDY UP 8.3% 11.99 7
7 3 IVY LEAGUE 6.7% 15.00 3
8 6 ROMANTIC LAOS 6.0% 16.80 1
9 9 RED MAJESTY 4.4% 22.94 9
10 5 GLORIOUS JOURNEY 4.1% 24.16 8
11 8 WAH MAY WAI WAI 1.6% 62.76 11
12 12 ORIENTAL TYCOON 0.7% 146.26 12
SWEET BRIARESCAPE ROUTERED HARE KINGJUMBO LEGENDSILVER UPGIDDY UPIVY LEAGUEROMANTIC LAOS — wonRED MAJESTYGLORIOUS JOURNEYWAH MAY WAI WAIORIENTAL TYCOON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 60.5

PLACE

1 17

3 45

6 22.5

QUINELLA

1,6 183

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 126.5

1,6 67.5

3,6 167.5

FORECAST

6,1 443

TIERCE

6,1,3 3,955

TRIO

1,3,6 793

FIRST 4

1,3,4,6 655

QUARTET

6,1,3,4 15,537

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

11/1 157

11/6 602