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Happy Valley · 2024-05-22 · 18:02

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-22 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. MIDORI GLORY, ridden by M F Poon and trained by P F Yiu, won by HD, with BEAUTY WAVES second and FAST SERVE third. The 2.2 favourite BEAUTY WAVES finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.56.99
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 MIDORI GLORY 0.56.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · P F Yiu 1 11.0 HD
2 1 BEAUTY WAVES TT Z Purton · P C Ng 5 2.2 HD
3 8 FAST SERVE XB L Ferraris · D J Hall 3 6.1 3/4
4 7 ATOMIC FORCE XB2/TT2 H Bentley · W K Mo 2 8.6 1
5 4 SPORTS LEGEND B/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 11 19.0 1
6 3 SUGAR SUGAR TT K H Chan · C Fownes 6 17.0 1-1/2
7 10 YOUTHFUL SPIRITS H/SR/TT A Badel · M Newnham 10 10.0 3
8 6 HEROIC MASTER CP-/B1/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 12 46.0 3
9 9 SUPER FORTUNE TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 8 15.0 4-1/4
10 2 CELESTIAL COLOURS V-/B2/TT H Bowman · J Richards 9 60.0 5-1/4
11 5 BRAVE STAR XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 14.0 6
12 12 MAJESTIC EXPRESS A Hamelin · J Size 4 70.0 7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MIDORI GLORY2. BEAUTY WAVES+0.2L3. FAST SERVE+0.75L4. ATOMIC FORCE+1L5. SPORTS LEGEND+1L6. SUGAR SUGAR+1.5L7. YOUTHFUL SPIRITS+3L8. HEROIC MASTER+3L9. SUPER FORTUNE+4.25L10. CELESTIAL COLOURS+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick BEAUTY WAVES (39.6%) finished 2nd — the winner MIDORI GLORY was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 BEAUTY WAVES 39.6% 2.53 2
2 8 FAST SERVE 19.6% 5.09 3
3 4 SPORTS LEGEND 7.5% 13.32 5
4 3 SUGAR SUGAR 5.9% 16.85 6
5 10 YOUTHFUL SPIRITS 5.2% 19.25 7
6 5 BRAVE STAR 5.1% 19.70 11
7 6 HEROIC MASTER 4.9% 20.40 8
8 7 ATOMIC FORCE 3.1% 31.89 4
9 9 SUPER FORTUNE 2.8% 36.14 9
10 2 CELESTIAL COLOURS 2.7% 37.59 10
11 11 MIDORI GLORY 2.4% 41.81 1
12 12 MAJESTIC EXPRESS 1.2% 81.80 12
BEAUTY WAVESFAST SERVESPORTS LEGENDSUGAR SUGARYOUTHFUL SPIRITSBRAVE STARHEROIC MASTERATOMIC FORCESUPER FORTUNECELESTIAL COLOURSMIDORI GLORY — wonMAJESTIC EXPRESS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 113.5

PLACE

1 11.5

8 23

11 38.5

QUINELLA

1,11 146

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 33.5

1,11 60.5

8,11 124.5

FORECAST

11,1 425

TIERCE

11,1,8 2,138

TRIO

1,8,11 272

FIRST 4

1,7,8,11 328

QUARTET

11,1,8,7 12,302

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,8,12/1,8,11 10,407

6TH DOUBLE

8/1 46

8/11 570

TRIPLE TRIO

3,6,12/1,8,12/1,8,11 1,121,955

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,6,12/1,8,12/Any Combination 4,275