Happy Valley · 2024-05-22 · 18:02
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-22 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SUPERB CAPITALIST, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with GUMMY GUMMY second and HARMONY N BLESSED third. The 4.1 favourite GUMMY GUMMY finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SUPERB CAPITALIST H/TT 1.09.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 5 | 5.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 7 | GUMMY GUMMY B C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 6 | 4.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 9 | HARMONY N BLESSED B/TT A Atzeni · D A Hayes | A Atzeni | D A Hayes | 1 | 6.5 | 2 |
| 4 | 5 | COLOURFUL EMPEROR TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 12 | 6.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | TOMODACHI KOKOROE TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 2 | 5.1 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | NORDIC DRAGON TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 7 | 15.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | HUMBLE STAR SR/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng | C Y Ho | P C Ng | 4 | 12.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 1 | BUNDLE OF CHARM A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 11 | 65.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 3 | KURPANY TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 10 | 104.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 6 | SEASONS WIT V/TT K De Melo · J Richards | K De Melo | J Richards | 8 | 88.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 2 | MAJESTIC KNIGHT B H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 9 | 9.9 | 9 |
| 12 | 10 | WE ARE HERO V/TT B Thompson · K L Man | B Thompson | K L Man | 3 | 93.0 | 11 |
| — | 0 | CARROLL STREET · D J Whyte | — | D J Whyte | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | COLOURFUL EMPEROR | 16.8% | 5.97 | 4 |
| 2 | 9 | HARMONY N BLESSED | 16.0% | 6.25 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | GUMMY GUMMY | 13.0% | 7.70 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | TOMODACHI KOKOROE | 12.3% | 8.13 | 5 |
| 5 | 8 | SUPERB CAPITALIST | 10.9% | 9.21 | 1 |
| 6 | 2 | MAJESTIC KNIGHT | 8.9% | 11.29 | 11 |
| 7 | 11 | NORDIC DRAGON | 7.0% | 14.33 | 6 |
| 8 | 12 | HUMBLE STAR | 4.1% | 24.42 | 7 |
| 9 | 1 | BUNDLE OF CHARM | 3.5% | 28.42 | 8 |
| 10 | 6 | SEASONS WIT | 3.1% | 31.95 | 10 |
| 11 | 3 | KURPANY | 2.8% | 36.28 | 9 |
| 12 | 10 | WE ARE HERO | 1.8% | 56.81 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 54
PLACE
7 20.5
8 21.5
9 23
QUINELLA
7,8 143
QUINELLA PLACE
7,8 58
7,9 66
8,9 66
FORECAST
8,7 262
TIERCE
8,7,9 1,529
TRIO
7,8,9 305
FIRST 4
5,7,8,9 415
QUARTET
8,7,9,5 9,762
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
11/6/7 543
11/6/8 3,396
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,6/7,8,9 32,200
8TH DOUBLE
6/7 38.5
6/8 338
SIX UP
5,10/6,12/1,8/1,11/1,6/7,8 844
10/6/8/11/6/8 271,360
2 [C S Shum] —
1 [K Teetan] —