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Sha Tin · 2024-05-29 · 11:17

Race 1

Class 2 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 5 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-29 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ADEFILL, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with YELLOWFIN second and TELECOM FIGHTERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.40.13
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 ADEFILL Closed strongly B 1.40.13 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P F Yiu 5 1.7 1-1/4
2 5 YELLOWFIN Closed strongly XB L Hewitson · K W Lui 4 3.5 1-1/4
3 1 TELECOM FIGHTERS Led early H Bowman · Y S Tsui 1 6.8 1-3/4
4 2 BUNDLE OF CHARM P2 A Badel · J Size 3 7.3 2-3/4
5 3 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S B M F Poon · F C Lor 2 15.0 3-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ADEFILL2. YELLOWFIN+1.25L3. TELECOM FIGHTERS+1.75L4. BUNDLE OF CHARM+2.75L5. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick ADEFILL (41.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 ADEFILL 41.5% 2.41 1
2 5 YELLOWFIN 28.1% 3.56 2
3 1 TELECOM FIGHTERS 21.0% 4.76 3
4 2 BUNDLE OF CHARM 6.1% 16.41 4
5 3 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 3.3% 29.95 5
ADEFILL — wonYELLOWFINTELECOM FIGHTERSBUNDLE OF CHARMALL FOR ST PAUL'S

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 17.5

PLACE

4 13

5 16.5

QUINELLA

4,5 21.5

FORECAST

4,5 37

TIERCE

4,5,1 66

TRIO

1,4,5 27