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Sha Tin · 2024-05-29 · 12:46

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-29 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ASIAN ONE, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by J Richards, won by 1/2, with RELIABLE PROFIT second and VIVA A LA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite GO HERO finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.40.06
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 ASIAN ONE Closed strongly B-/XB/PC2/TT 1.40.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · J Richards 2 12.0 1/2
2 3 RELIABLE PROFIT Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 6 7.0 1/2
3 11 VIVA A LA Led early B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 4 15.0 3/4
4 7 PERFECT PEACH Closed strongly B-/P1/TT K Teetan · C W Chang 7 7.3 1-1/4
5 5 MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT A Hamelin · P C Ng 10 24.0 2
6 14 GREEN LASER Closed strongly PC/TT B Thompson · W Y So 8 17.0 3-3/4
7 9 NINJA DERBY Closed strongly H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 14 13.0 4-1/4
8 6 WOODFIRE CHAMP TT K C Leung · C W Chang 1 46.0 4-1/4
9 4 CHIRON Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · D A Hayes 13 15.0 5-1/2
10 10 PRECISION GOAL TT H Bentley · D A Hayes 11 14.0 6-1/4
11 2 GO HERO B/TT Z Purton · Y S Tsui 3 3.5 6-3/4
12 13 EAGLE RUN TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 9.0 8
13 8 GENERAL ACE CP K De Melo · K W Lui 5 35.0 15-1/2
14 1 WINNING SEVEN XB/TT H Bowman · D J Whyte 12 27.0 19-1/4
0 CHARMING STEED C Y Ho · C Fownes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ASIAN ONE2. RELIABLE PROFIT+0.5L3. VIVA A LA+0.75L4. PERFECT PEACH+1.25L5. MEDIC ELITE+2L6. GREEN LASER+3.75L7. NINJA DERBY+4.25L8. WOODFIRE CHAMP+4.25L9. CHIRON+5.5L10. PRECISION GOAL+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GO HERO (17.7%) finished 11th — the winner ASIAN ONE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 GO HERO 17.7% 5.65 11
2 7 PERFECT PEACH 11.4% 8.78 4
3 11 VIVA A LA 8.6% 11.63 3
4 12 ASIAN ONE 8.3% 12.06 1
5 9 NINJA DERBY 8.3% 12.07 7
6 10 PRECISION GOAL 7.9% 12.73 10
7 5 MEDIC ELITE 6.6% 15.20 5
8 4 CHIRON 5.7% 17.54 9
9 3 RELIABLE PROFIT 5.6% 17.78 2
10 13 EAGLE RUN 4.5% 22.15 12
11 1 WINNING SEVEN 4.3% 23.44 14
12 14 GREEN LASER 3.9% 25.88 6
13 8 GENERAL ACE 3.8% 26.55 13
14 6 WOODFIRE CHAMP 3.6% 28.16 8
GO HEROPERFECT PEACHVIVA A LAASIAN ONE — wonNINJA DERBYPRECISION GOALMEDIC ELITECHIRONRELIABLE PROFITEAGLE RUNWINNING SEVENGREEN LASERGENERAL ACEWOODFIRE CHAMP

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 123

PLACE

3 24

11 56.5

12 28.5

QUINELLA

3,12 427

QUINELLA PLACE

3,11 227

3,12 134

11,12 260

FORECAST

12,3 986

TIERCE

12,3,11 14,970

TRIO

3,11,12 2,540

FIRST 4

3,7,11,12 2,883

QUARTET

12,3,11,7 62,968

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,10/3,11,12 141,586

3RD DOUBLE

1/3 93

1/12 719.5