Sha Tin · 2024-05-29 · 12:18
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-29 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. MUST GO, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by 1-1/2, with REGENT GLORY second and TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR third. The 3.2 favourite DIAMOND FLARE finished 11th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | MUST GO E/PC/TT 1.09.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 9 | 6.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | REGENT GLORY B K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 10 | 7.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 10 | TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR H-/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 3 | 4.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 11 | SPANGLE FORTUNE B/TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 8 | 41.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | SKY SONG TT B Thompson · C Fownes | B Thompson | C Fownes | 7 | 17.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | SUNNY DARLING PC/TT H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 5 | 14.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | OMAKASE TT Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 2 | 15.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | SPEED SWORD TT L Hewitson · F C Lor | L Hewitson | F C Lor | 12 | 62.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | FLYING DRAGON XB A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 6 | 18.0 | 8 |
| 10 | 12 | JOY IN JOY TT1 A Atzeni · D J Whyte | A Atzeni | D J Whyte | 11 | 56.0 | 10 |
| 11 | 7 | DIAMOND FLARE B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 1 | 3.2 | 11-3/4 |
| 12 | 3 | SOLAR UP B/TT M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 4 | 16.0 | 14-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR | 32.5% | 3.08 | 3 |
| 2 | 7 | DIAMOND FLARE | 23.6% | 4.24 | 11 |
| 3 | 11 | SPANGLE FORTUNE | 6.9% | 14.50 | 4 |
| 4 | 1 | MUST GO | 6.9% | 14.56 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | REGENT GLORY | 6.4% | 15.70 | 2 |
| 6 | 5 | OMAKASE | 5.4% | 18.48 | 7 |
| 7 | 2 | SUNNY DARLING | 5.0% | 19.98 | 6 |
| 8 | 9 | SKY SONG | 4.9% | 20.46 | 5 |
| 9 | 12 | JOY IN JOY | 3.2% | 30.80 | 10 |
| 10 | 8 | FLYING DRAGON | 3.0% | 32.99 | 9 |
| 11 | 3 | SOLAR UP | 1.1% | 87.44 | 12 |
| 12 | 6 | SPEED SWORD | 1.0% | 96.18 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 60
PLACE
1 22
4 21
10 15.5
QUINELLA
1,4 173
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 61
1,10 43
4,10 46.5
FORECAST
1,4 366
TIERCE
1,4,10 1,199
TRIO
1,4,10 213
FIRST 4
1,4,10,11 855
QUARTET
1,4,10,11 17,452
All pools (1 more)
2ND DOUBLE
9/1 437
9/4 94.5