Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2024-05-29 · 14:53

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-29 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. BERLIN TANGO, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by A S Cruz, won by SH, with APACHE PASS second and PERFECT TEAM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite WOODFIRE BRO finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.39.12
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly H-/B/TT 1.39.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · A S Cruz 6 5.4 SH
2 3 APACHE PASS Closed strongly BO/XB H Bowman · P C Ng 8 9.3 SH
3 4 PERFECT TEAM Closed strongly H/P/TT A Badel · C Fownes 2 5.4 1-1/4
4 2 WOODFIRE BRO Closed strongly TT K C Leung · C W Chang 5 3.4 2-1/4
5 12 AMAZING DUCK V-/CP2 M F Poon · K H Ting 11 9.9 2-1/2
6 9 AESTHETICISM Closed strongly B L Hewitson · P C Ng 4 18.0 3-1/2
7 11 SURUGA BAY Closed strongly B-/V1/TT1 K Teetan · C S Shum 14 66.0 3-3/4
8 14 SILVER UP Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum 3 9.8 4
9 13 RED MAJESTY B/TT K De Melo · D A Hayes 1 24.0 4-3/4
10 10 DEVILDOM Closed strongly B B Thompson · T P Yung 10 75.0 9
11 8 HIGHLAND RAHY TT A Atzeni · K W Lui 13 57.0 9
12 6 SUPER WINNER TT Y L Chung · C H Yip 7 99.0 10-3/4
13 7 EXCELLENT FIGHTER B/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 12 38.0 11-3/4
14 5 MASSIVE ACTION Led early SR/V H T Mo · F C Lor 9 14.0 12

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BERLIN TANGO2. APACHE PASS+0.1L3. PERFECT TEAM+1.25L4. WOODFIRE BRO+2.25L5. AMAZING DUCK+2.5L6. AESTHETICISM+3.5L7. SURUGA BAY+3.75L8. SILVER UP+4L9. RED MAJESTY+4.75L10. DEVILDOM+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick PERFECT TEAM (15.1%) finished 3rd — the winner BERLIN TANGO was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 PERFECT TEAM 15.1% 6.60 3
2 1 BERLIN TANGO 12.5% 8.00 1
3 14 SILVER UP 10.7% 9.35 8
4 9 AESTHETICISM 9.3% 10.77 6
5 2 WOODFIRE BRO 9.0% 11.13 4
6 5 MASSIVE ACTION 8.1% 12.39 14
7 3 APACHE PASS 7.5% 13.27 2
8 7 EXCELLENT FIGHTER 7.4% 13.59 13
9 13 RED MAJESTY 5.2% 19.20 9
10 6 SUPER WINNER 4.6% 21.60 12
11 12 AMAZING DUCK 4.3% 23.10 5
12 10 DEVILDOM 2.5% 40.27 10
13 8 HIGHLAND RAHY 2.0% 50.24 11
14 11 SURUGA BAY 1.8% 55.76 7
PERFECT TEAMBERLIN TANGO — wonSILVER UPAESTHETICISMWOODFIRE BROMASSIVE ACTIONAPACHE PASSEXCELLENT FIGHTERRED MAJESTYSUPER WINNERAMAZING DUCKDEVILDOMHIGHLAND RAHYSURUGA BAY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 54

PLACE

1 19.5

3 28

4 19

QUINELLA

1,3 269.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 92

1,4 56

3,4 77

FORECAST

1,3 500

TIERCE

1,3,4 1,700

TRIO

1,3,4 304

FIRST 4

1,2,3,4 195

QUARTET

1,3,4,2 4,281

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

5/3/1 7,124

5/3/3 1,565

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,6/1,3,4 37,692

7TH DOUBLE

3/1 200.5

3/3 67.5

SIX UP

1,4/3,12/3,7/5,11/3,5/1,3 27,046

1/12/3/5/3/1 1,263,187

21 [Others]

6 [H Bowman]