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Sha Tin · 2024-05-29 · 13:47

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1800m 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-05-29 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. G LINER, ridden by H Bowman and trained by J Richards, won by 1/2, with BRAVE WITNESS second and JUBILATION third. The winner led throughout. The 5.6 favourite BRAVE WITNESS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.49.95
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 G LINER Wire to wire H/P/XB/TT 1.49.95 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · J Richards 10 17.0 1/2
2 11 BRAVE WITNESS CP1/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 4 5.6 1/2
3 13 JUBILATION Closed strongly V K De Melo · W Y So 3 7.6 3
4 3 GALLANT HERO Closed strongly B Avdulla · D J Hall 6 10.0 3-3/4
5 6 LUCKY BANNER H/TT A Badel · C Fownes 5 11.0 3-3/4
6 8 FOREVER FOLKS Closed strongly B B Thompson · C W Chang 7 8.2 4-1/4
7 9 FURY AND GOLD CP- A Atzeni · C H Yip 1 40.0 4-3/4
8 4 MISSION BRAVO Closed strongly B L Hewitson · M Newnham 12 9.5 5
9 1 KIMBERLEY B-/PC2/TT Z Purton · J Richards 14 12.0 5-1/4
10 12 KYRUS UNICORN B H Bentley · D J Hall 9 16.0 5-1/4
11 7 STARSHIP EIGHTY Closed strongly PC/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 13 10.0 5-1/4
12 2 VIVA HUNTER TT M F Poon · K L Man 8 12.0 6-1/4
13 10 MR ALADDIN B-/V1 L Ferraris · P C Ng 11 24.0 6-3/4
14 14 LITTLE FAIRY V-/B2/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 2 18.0 9
0 FAST VICTORY C L Chau · D A Hayes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. G LINER2. BRAVE WITNESS+0.5L3. JUBILATION+3L4. GALLANT HERO+3.75L5. LUCKY BANNER+3.75L6. FOREVER FOLKS+4.25L7. FURY AND GOLD+4.75L8. MISSION BRAVO+5L9. KIMBERLEY+5.25L10. KYRUS UNICORN+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick KIMBERLEY (13.7%) finished 9th — the winner G LINER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 KIMBERLEY 13.7% 7.30 9
2 5 G LINER 11.4% 8.78 1
3 11 BRAVE WITNESS 9.5% 10.51 2
4 10 MR ALADDIN 8.9% 11.28 13
5 6 LUCKY BANNER 8.7% 11.44 5
6 7 STARSHIP EIGHTY 7.4% 13.49 11
7 4 MISSION BRAVO 6.9% 14.49 8
8 8 FOREVER FOLKS 6.7% 14.83 6
9 13 JUBILATION 6.6% 15.09 3
10 14 LITTLE FAIRY 6.3% 15.94 14
11 2 VIVA HUNTER 4.9% 20.47 12
12 12 KYRUS UNICORN 4.4% 22.86 10
13 3 GALLANT HERO 3.6% 27.80 4
14 9 FURY AND GOLD 1.0% 103.69 7
KIMBERLEYG LINER — wonBRAVE WITNESSMR ALADDINLUCKY BANNERSTARSHIP EIGHTYMISSION BRAVOFOREVER FOLKSJUBILATIONLITTLE FAIRYVIVA HUNTERKYRUS UNICORNGALLANT HEROFURY AND GOLD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 179.5

PLACE

5 54

11 20.5

13 28.5

QUINELLA

5,11 672

QUINELLA PLACE

5,11 224.5

5,13 295

11,13 93

FORECAST

5,11 1,629

TIERCE

5,11,13 11,888

TRIO

5,11,13 1,761

FIRST 4

3,5,11,13 3,827

QUARTET

5,11,13,3 98,508

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,7,9/5,11,13 221,137

5TH DOUBLE

3/5 1,348

3/11 72.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,11,12/3,7,9/Any Combination 40,074