Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2024-06-05 · 12:12

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-06-05 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. ERNEST FEELING, ridden by B Thompson and trained by J Richards, won by 1-1/4, with GOLDEN CHAMPION second and COSMO NAVIGATOR third. The 3.2 favourite SO TREASURE finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.11.20
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 ERNEST FEELING B/TT 1.11.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Thompson · J Richards 9 31.0 1-1/4
2 11 GOLDEN CHAMPION CP/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 2 66.0 1-1/4
3 9 COSMO NAVIGATOR B A Hamelin · C W Chang 3 4.9 1-1/4
4 10 FAIRY HORSE TT A Atzeni · C Fownes 10 16.0 1-1/2
5 12 LAPRAS TT K Teetan · W K Mo 7 23.0 3
6 2 CALIFORNIA CIBLE TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 8 6.4 3
7 3 EASY SNIP B L Hewitson · T P Yung 12 51.0 4-3/4
8 4 THE GREAT MASTER Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 11 45.0 5
9 7 SO TREASURE CP L Ferraris · M Newnham 1 3.2 6-3/4
10 8 SEA SAPPHIRE PC E C W Wong · P C Ng 4 4.5 11
11 5 SMASHING EXPRESS E1/P1 H Bowman · J Size 6 31.0 14-1/4
12 1 E UNIVERSE TT Z Purton · K L Man 5 10.0 36

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ERNEST FEELING2. GOLDEN CHAMPION+1.25L3. COSMO NAVIGATOR+1.25L4. FAIRY HORSE+1.5L5. LAPRAS+3L6. CALIFORNIA CIBLE+3L7. EASY SNIP+4.75L8. THE GREAT MASTER+5L9. SO TREASURE+6.75L10. SEA SAPPHIRE+11L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SO TREASURE (19.4%) finished 9th — the winner ERNEST FEELING was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SO TREASURE 19.4% 5.15 9
2 8 SEA SAPPHIRE 14.5% 6.89 10
3 1 E UNIVERSE 13.3% 7.54 12
4 5 SMASHING EXPRESS 13.1% 7.65 11
5 9 COSMO NAVIGATOR 11.2% 8.92 3
6 2 CALIFORNIA CIBLE 6.8% 14.63 6
7 3 EASY SNIP 6.8% 14.81 7
8 12 LAPRAS 5.2% 19.41 5
9 4 THE GREAT MASTER 3.3% 30.34 8
10 10 FAIRY HORSE 2.7% 37.00 4
11 11 GOLDEN CHAMPION 2.4% 40.84 2
12 6 ERNEST FEELING 1.3% 74.46 1
SO TREASURESEA SAPPHIREE UNIVERSESMASHING EXPRESSCOSMO NAVIGATORCALIFORNIA CIBLEEASY SNIPLAPRASTHE GREAT MASTERFAIRY HORSEGOLDEN CHAMPIONERNEST FEELING — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 310

PLACE

6 71.5

9 17.5

11 135.5

QUINELLA

6,11 6,945.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,9 188

6,11 1,582

9,11 399.5

FORECAST

6,11 13,238

TIERCE

6,11,9 97,035

TRIO

6,9,11 9,253

FIRST 4

6,9,10,11 22,491

QUARTET

6,11,9,10 759,868

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

4/6 1,482.5

4/11 371