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Happy Valley · 2024-06-05 · 14:53

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO YIELDING 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2024-06-05 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. CALIFORNIA TOUCH, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by W K Mo, won by N, with KA YING CHEER second and A AMERIC TE SPECSO third. The 3.7 favourite WINGS OF WAR finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.10.53
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 CALIFORNIA TOUCH TT 1.10.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · W K Mo 7 4.7 N
2 11 KA YING CHEER V1 A Badel · P C Ng 10 4.6 N
3 4 A AMERIC TE SPECSO B Z Purton · J Size 3 11.0 1-1/2
4 8 ARMOUR EAGLE B/XB/TT K Teetan · J Richards 1 18.0 2-1/2
5 2 WINGS OF WAR B H Bentley · D J Whyte 2 3.7 2-3/4
6 1 SUGAR SUGAR TT K H Chan · C Fownes 11 20.0 3
7 10 SUPER FORTUNE TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 5 11.0 4
8 12 EXUBERANT B/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 9 43.0 4
9 3 JOYFUL HUNTER XB2/TT- C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 8.1 5-1/2
10 9 OUR LUCKY GLORY TT A Atzeni · W Y So 8 26.0 5-3/4
11 5 EXCELLENT PEERS H/XB L Hewitson · F C Lor 4 26.0 7
12 7 MEGA BONUS V L Ferraris · P F Yiu 12 51.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CALIFORNIA TOUCH2. KA YING CHEER+0.05L3. A AMERIC TE SPECSO+1.5L4. ARMOUR EAGLE+2.5L5. WINGS OF WAR+2.75L6. SUGAR SUGAR+3L7. SUPER FORTUNE+4L8. EXUBERANT+4L9. JOYFUL HUNTER+5.5L10. OUR LUCKY GLORY+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick WINGS OF WAR (17.9%) finished 5th — the winner CALIFORNIA TOUCH was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 WINGS OF WAR 17.9% 5.58 5
2 3 JOYFUL HUNTER 13.0% 7.68 9
3 11 KA YING CHEER 12.3% 8.12 2
4 6 CALIFORNIA TOUCH 11.3% 8.86 1
5 4 A AMERIC TE SPECSO 9.9% 10.06 3
6 9 OUR LUCKY GLORY 7.4% 13.47 10
7 8 ARMOUR EAGLE 6.1% 16.35 4
8 12 EXUBERANT 5.4% 18.59 8
9 5 EXCELLENT PEERS 4.9% 20.50 11
10 1 SUGAR SUGAR 4.3% 23.42 6
11 10 SUPER FORTUNE 4.2% 23.98 7
12 7 MEGA BONUS 3.3% 30.55 12
WINGS OF WARJOYFUL HUNTERKA YING CHEERCALIFORNIA TOUCH — wonA AMERIC TE SPECSOOUR LUCKY GLORYARMOUR EAGLEEXUBERANTEXCELLENT PEERSSUGAR SUGARSUPER FORTUNEMEGA BONUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 47.5

PLACE

4 30

6 17.5

11 19.5

QUINELLA

6,11 124

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 91

4,11 90.5

6,11 54

FORECAST

6,11 304

TIERCE

6,11,4 1,963

TRIO

4,6,11 383

FIRST 4

4,6,8,11 1,595

QUARTET

6,11,4,8 23,030

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

10/4/6 14,855

10/4/11 1,945

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,12/4,6,11 104,313

8TH DOUBLE

4/6 2,015.5

4/11 430.5

SIX UP

6,11/2,9/9,11/4,10/4,12/6,11 222,021

1 [Z Purton]

5 [W K Mo]