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Happy Valley · 2024-06-26 · 10:41

Race 1

Class 5 2200m Course C 10 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-06-26 was Class 5 over 2200m. ARTHUR'S KINGDOM, ridden by K Teetan and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1-1/4, with GO GO GO second and RELIABLE PROFIT third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.15.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM Wire to wire 2.15.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · Y S Tsui 2 2.4 1-1/4
2 5 GO GO GO Closed strongly P/TT Z Purton · W Y So 9 6.2 1-1/4
3 3 RELIABLE PROFIT B/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 3 12.0 2-1/4
4 4 KEEN UNITY Closed strongly V/TT H Bowman · K H Ting 8 6.6 2-3/4
5 2 KINGLY DEMEANOR TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 4 7.2 3-1/4
6 7 LEATHER MASTER Closed strongly B B Thompson · T P Yung 6 15.0 4-3/4
7 1 ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE Closed strongly TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 10 17.0 10-1/4
8 9 FASTPASS B-/CP1/SR2 M F Poon · C H Yip 5 32.0 12-3/4
9 10 GREEN LASER PC/TT M L Yeung · W Y So 7 19.0 13-1/2
10 6 CLASSIC ARCHI B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 1 14.0 16-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ARTHUR'S KINGDOM2. GO GO GO+1.25L3. RELIABLE PROFIT+2.25L4. KEEN UNITY+2.75L5. KINGLY DEMEANOR+3.25L6. LEATHER MASTER+4.75L7. ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE+10.25L8. FASTPASS+12.75L9. GREEN LASER+13.5L10. CLASSIC ARCHI+16.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick ARTHUR'S KINGDOM (23.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 23.4% 4.27 1
2 5 GO GO GO 16.5% 6.07 2
3 3 RELIABLE PROFIT 14.2% 7.04 3
4 2 KINGLY DEMEANOR 13.1% 7.64 5
5 6 CLASSIC ARCHI 11.7% 8.53 10
6 4 KEEN UNITY 6.4% 15.59 4
7 7 LEATHER MASTER 4.5% 22.00 6
8 1 ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE 4.4% 22.73 7
9 10 GREEN LASER 3.4% 29.55 9
10 9 FASTPASS 2.3% 43.08 8
ARTHUR'S KINGDOM — wonGO GO GORELIABLE PROFITKINGLY DEMEANORCLASSIC ARCHIKEEN UNITYLEATHER MASTERABSOLUTE SUNSHINEGREEN LASERFASTPASS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 24.5

PLACE

3 37

5 19

8 13

QUINELLA

5,8 68

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 112.5

3,8 67.5

5,8 30.5

FORECAST

8,5 120

TIERCE

8,5,3 784

TRIO

3,5,8 246

FIRST 4

3,4,5,8 373

QUARTET

8,5,3,4 4,434