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Happy Valley · 2024-06-26 · 19:41

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.33
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 COMET SPLENDIDO Closed strongly TT 1.39.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum 9 5.2 1-1/4
2 11 KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly B A Atzeni · D J Hall 4 11.0 1-1/4
3 7 SURE JOYFUL Closed strongly TT M F Poon · P F Yiu 3 7.6 1-1/2
4 2 RED MAJESTY Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes 5 8.0 1-1/2
5 10 GREAT ACHIEVER Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 10 31.0 1-3/4
6 3 SIXTH GENERATION Closed strongly CP-/H-/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 8 10.0 3
6 12 SUPER EAGLE TT M Chadwick · W Y So 7 27.0 3
8 6 STORM LEGEND E C W Wong · C Fownes 1 4.5 3-1/4
9 8 SUPER BABY B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 6 24.0 4
10 9 PATCH OF TIME H/TT- K Teetan · W K Mo 2 4.9 6
11 5 GOLDEN LUCK Led early XB/TT L Hewitson · K L Man 12 54.0 11-1/2
12 4 CORDYCEPS ONE Y L Chung · C H Yip 11 36.0 12-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-06-26 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. COMET SPLENDIDO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/4, with KYRUS UNICORN second and SURE JOYFUL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.5 favourite STORM LEGEND finished 8th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. COMET SPLENDIDO—2. KYRUS UNICORN+1.25L3. SURE JOYFUL+1.5L4. RED MAJESTY+1.5L5. GREAT ACHIEVER+1.75L6. SIXTH GENERATION+3L6. SUPER EAGLE+3L8. STORM LEGEND+3.25L9. SUPER BABY+4L10. PATCH OF TIME+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick STORM LEGEND (17.3%) finished 8th — the winner COMET SPLENDIDO was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 STORM LEGEND 17.3% 5.78 8
2 1 COMET SPLENDIDO 16.3% 6.12 1
3 9 PATCH OF TIME 12.8% 7.80 10
4 7 SURE JOYFUL 10.5% 9.48 3
5 2 RED MAJESTY 9.5% 10.58 4
6 11 KYRUS UNICORN 7.1% 14.01 2
7 12 SUPER EAGLE 5.8% 17.30 6
8 3 SIXTH GENERATION 5.4% 18.55 6
9 8 SUPER BABY 4.2% 23.61 9
10 5 GOLDEN LUCK 4.1% 24.13 11
11 10 GREAT ACHIEVER 3.6% 27.78 5
12 4 CORDYCEPS ONE 3.3% 30.66 12
STORM LEGENDCOMET SPLENDIDO — wonPATCH OF TIMESURE JOYFULRED MAJESTYKYRUS UNICORNSUPER EAGLESIXTH GENERATIONSUPER BABYGOLDEN LUCKGREAT ACHIEVERCORDYCEPS ONE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 52

PLACE

1 19

7 25

11 36

QUINELLA

1,11 255.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 63.5

1,11 90.5

7,11 127.5

FORECAST

1,11 481

TIERCE

1,11,7 3,398

TRIO

1,7,11 686

FIRST 4

1,2,7,11 993

QUARTET

1,11,7,2 22,656

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,9/1,7,11 8,983

2ND DOUBLE

5/1 182.5

5/11 89