Happy Valley · 2024-06-26 · 13:12
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2024-06-26 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. PACKING HERMOD, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 2-1/2, with PRIME MORTAR second and SCOTCH TYCOON third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | PACKING HERMOD 1.09.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 2 | 2.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | PRIME MORTAR V/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 2.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | SCOTCH TYCOON B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 3 | 8.7 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | WOOD ON FIRE V/TT K C Leung · C W Chang | K C Leung | C W Chang | 9 | 67.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | TALENTS SUPREMO CP/TT K Teetan · W K Mo | K Teetan | W K Mo | 6 | 10.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | MR GOOD VIBES B H Bentley · D J Hall | H Bentley | D J Hall | 5 | 15.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | DIVINE SHINING H-/TT A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 11 | 88.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 6 | DOUBLE BINGO B Avdulla · Y S Tsui | B Avdulla | Y S Tsui | 7 | 25.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | SAVVY CHIC V/TT L Hewitson · F C Lor | L Hewitson | F C Lor | 4 | 44.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 7 | GLORY B CP/H K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 12 | 86.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | TEAM HAPPY B A Hamelin · P C Ng | A Hamelin | P C Ng | 8 | 49.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 1 | MAGIC PHOENIX V1/TT H Bowman · K H Ting | H Bowman | K H Ting | 10 | 28.0 | 8-1/4 |
| — | 0 | JOYFUL LIFE A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | PACKING HERMOD | 23.1% | 4.32 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | PRIME MORTAR | 15.2% | 6.60 | 2 |
| 3 | 11 | MR GOOD VIBES | 14.9% | 6.70 | 6 |
| 4 | 9 | TALENTS SUPREMO | 14.0% | 7.12 | 5 |
| 5 | 3 | SCOTCH TYCOON | 9.3% | 10.75 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | GLORY B | 4.6% | 21.51 | 10 |
| 7 | 8 | WOOD ON FIRE | 4.3% | 23.34 | 4 |
| 8 | 12 | DIVINE SHINING | 4.0% | 25.29 | 7 |
| 9 | 1 | MAGIC PHOENIX | 3.2% | 30.80 | 12 |
| 10 | 10 | TEAM HAPPY | 3.2% | 31.24 | 11 |
| 11 | 4 | SAVVY CHIC | 2.3% | 44.06 | 9 |
| 12 | 6 | DOUBLE BINGO | 1.9% | 54.05 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 23
PLACE
2 14.5
3 22
5 11
QUINELLA
2,5 37.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 37.5
2,5 20.5
3,5 36.5
FORECAST
5,2 67
TIERCE
5,2,3 191
TRIO
2,3,5 60
FIRST 4
2,3,5,8 582
QUARTET
5,2,3,8 5,009
All pools (1 more)
5TH DOUBLE
2/2 25
2/5 121.5