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Happy Valley · 2024-06-26 · 13:12

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2024-06-26 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. PACKING HERMOD, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 2-1/2, with PRIME MORTAR second and SCOTCH TYCOON third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 PACKING HERMOD 1.09.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui 2 2.3 2-1/2
2 2 PRIME MORTAR V/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 2.8 2-1/2
3 3 SCOTCH TYCOON B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 3 8.7 3
4 8 WOOD ON FIRE V/TT K C Leung · C W Chang 9 67.0 3-1/4
5 9 TALENTS SUPREMO CP/TT K Teetan · W K Mo 6 10.0 3-1/2
6 11 MR GOOD VIBES B H Bentley · D J Hall 5 15.0 4-1/2
7 12 DIVINE SHINING H-/TT A Badel · C Fownes 11 88.0 5
8 6 DOUBLE BINGO B Avdulla · Y S Tsui 7 25.0 5-1/2
9 4 SAVVY CHIC V/TT L Hewitson · F C Lor 4 44.0 6
10 7 GLORY B CP/H K De Melo · D J Whyte 12 86.0 6-1/2
11 10 TEAM HAPPY B A Hamelin · P C Ng 8 49.0 7
12 1 MAGIC PHOENIX V1/TT H Bowman · K H Ting 10 28.0 8-1/4
0 JOYFUL LIFE A Badel · P F Yiu

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PACKING HERMOD2. PRIME MORTAR+2.5L3. SCOTCH TYCOON+3L4. WOOD ON FIRE+3.25L5. TALENTS SUPREMO+3.5L6. MR GOOD VIBES+4.5L7. DIVINE SHINING+5L8. DOUBLE BINGO+5.5L9. SAVVY CHIC+6L10. GLORY B+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick PACKING HERMOD (23.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 PACKING HERMOD 23.1% 4.32 1
2 2 PRIME MORTAR 15.2% 6.60 2
3 11 MR GOOD VIBES 14.9% 6.70 6
4 9 TALENTS SUPREMO 14.0% 7.12 5
5 3 SCOTCH TYCOON 9.3% 10.75 3
6 7 GLORY B 4.6% 21.51 10
7 8 WOOD ON FIRE 4.3% 23.34 4
8 12 DIVINE SHINING 4.0% 25.29 7
9 1 MAGIC PHOENIX 3.2% 30.80 12
10 10 TEAM HAPPY 3.2% 31.24 11
11 4 SAVVY CHIC 2.3% 44.06 9
12 6 DOUBLE BINGO 1.9% 54.05 8
PACKING HERMOD — wonPRIME MORTARMR GOOD VIBESTALENTS SUPREMOSCOTCH TYCOONGLORY BWOOD ON FIREDIVINE SHININGMAGIC PHOENIXTEAM HAPPYSAVVY CHICDOUBLE BINGO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 23

PLACE

2 14.5

3 22

5 11

QUINELLA

2,5 37.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 37.5

2,5 20.5

3,5 36.5

FORECAST

5,2 67

TIERCE

5,2,3 191

TRIO

2,3,5 60

FIRST 4

2,3,5,8 582

QUARTET

5,2,3,8 5,009

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

2/2 25

2/5 121.5