Happy Valley · 2024-06-26 · 12:41
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-06-26 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SETANTA, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by 1-1/2, with I CAN second and CAN'T GO WONG third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite CAN'T GO WONG finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SETANTA Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 4 | 4.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | I CAN Closed strongly H/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 11 | 9.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | CAN'T GO WONG B/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 5 | 2.8 | 5-1/4 |
| 4 | 8 | NOT A FEW Closed strongly CP-/TT Y L Chung · D J Whyte | Y L Chung | D J Whyte | 9 | 86.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | ATOMIC BEAUTY V/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 12 | 11.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 6 | 12 | THE KHAN Led early H/SR A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 8 | 8.4 | 7 |
| 7 | 3 | STAR LINE B K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 2 | 16.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 8 | 10 | AMAZING BOY TT M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 3 | 28.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | TOGEPI TT L Hewitson · W K Mo | L Hewitson | W K Mo | 7 | 77.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | FAST VICTORY B C L Chau · D A Hayes | C L Chau | D A Hayes | 1 | 7.2 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | TIGER AND GOLD Closed strongly B B Thompson · C H Yip | B Thompson | C H Yip | 6 | 109.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 12 | 11 | HARRY'S HERO E A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 10 | 21.0 | 13-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | FAST VICTORY | 24.0% | 4.17 | 10 |
| 2 | 5 | CAN'T GO WONG | 22.9% | 4.37 | 3 |
| 3 | 2 | SETANTA | 12.4% | 8.08 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | I CAN | 11.1% | 9.03 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | AMAZING BOY | 6.1% | 16.43 | 8 |
| 6 | 4 | ATOMIC BEAUTY | 5.8% | 17.12 | 5 |
| 7 | 3 | STAR LINE | 5.6% | 17.92 | 7 |
| 8 | 12 | THE KHAN | 5.0% | 20.14 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | HARRY'S HERO | 3.9% | 25.74 | 12 |
| 10 | 6 | TOGEPI | 1.7% | 57.18 | 9 |
| 11 | 8 | NOT A FEW | 1.1% | 88.52 | 4 |
| 12 | 9 | TIGER AND GOLD | 0.5% | 214.60 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 42
PLACE
1 28.5
2 16
5 12.5
QUINELLA
1,2 197.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 71.5
1,5 49.5
2,5 27
FORECAST
2,1 345
TIERCE
2,1,5 732
TRIO
1,2,5 91
FIRST 4
1,2,5,8 1,447
QUARTET
2,1,5,8 32,853
All pools (3 more)
1ST TREBLE
1/3/1 461
1/3/2 2,014
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,6/1,2,5 5,806
4TH DOUBLE
3/1 90
3/2 359.5